There is enough swap, as when the contracts run out - it frees up a lot of swap (unless the lender refuses to renew). The question is whether they'll try a short squeeze, or a swap squeeze. I'm thinking a swap squeeze is more profitable and we'll see 1% interest rates.
and bitfinex let this happen, and not answer for any mails
Is there any update about this?
They added more contracts and have kicked the can down the road. I'm a little pissed that they didn't tell us in advance. I closed a short position because I believed that there wouldn't be enough swap on the market for everyone to renew, and the price wasn't going down because someone put in a price floor. Also recognizing this problem I jumped to the other side, buying contracts with the expectation that there would be a short squeeze. To add contracts at the last minute means that I've now been screwed twice.
Adding more contracts doesn't help because there is still a chance that rational players will not offer any swap for the last day before contracts expire. Add to this the interest those swap contracts are accumulating, which has to come from somewhere, and in the end there won't be enough TH1 in the market for everyone to close their positions.
Because I cannot predict what bitfinex will do or when, and their actions have serious consequences on the market, I'm now looking for the best way to withdraw. I thought I was buying contracts in a market of 500, and after the fact it was changed to be a contract in a market of 600.