Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

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assuming you invest in a currency of country which has a limited supply of money and you can be pretty sure that it will never be changed.

assume further that this country has the possibility to fill some niches in the global economy

you think it is insane to invest in the currency of this country?

If the currency is inflating @ 10% a year, and its dollar exchange rate has fallen by more than 50% in 2014? Let's just say "not very smart."

the dollar exchange rate has increased by around 150 times in the last one and a half years - very smart investment Cheesy

induction as an indicator over time is stupid.

you can argue that my assumptions are wrong or that the niche is very small but arguing over charts is beyond stupid

if these assumptions are true and the niche is big enough you can say that investing in this "currency" is sane.

Bitcoin's exchange rate has gone up infinitely over the past five years. There once was a time when it was worth exactly nothing. Extrapolating from that, your future profits should also be infinite.

If you wish to get back to reality, you may consider Bitcoin's performance in the more recent past. Since December of 2013, the price has been steadily declining.

If your reasoning proves anything, it proves entirely too much. It proves that any investment which did well in some distant past is bound to be profitable in the future. Regardless of its recent performance.

I hope I do not need to dwell on the folly of such assumptions.

Re. "induction as an indicator over time": wat?

Edit: When you consider the likely response of governments, which we all know are on the central bankers' leash, the "investment" starts looking even less sane.