My understanding, and I might be wrong :
- I'm not sure about the concept of scBTC trading on exchanges for reasons that buying a 4$ share of BTC and transferring to SC will give you 4$ share of scBTC. Value of BTC and sBTC are correlated, no matter the 1:x peg.
- My assumption is the share of scBTC pie you can claim is representative to the share of BTC you own. In that sense, if a SC is so superior that there are clear incentives for people to transfer their BTC to this chain, it does not matter when they do it for their stake in BTC, even while on BTC's blockchain, is simply a stake of scBTC they have not claimed YET.
- If this assumption is true then automatically the value of a Bitcoin will rise will the value of its "to-be-claimed" stake in sBTC and be redeemable for the same USD exchange rate
edit : Maybe this makes no sense but this is how I understand it.
ah, that does make sense actually. but what happens if, as it becomes clear that a SC is going to win over Bitcoin, miners begin to jack their mining tx fees just b/c they can to create the SPV proof tx required to make the switch to scBTC?
also, there still is the question of Blockstream creating an additional asset on the winning SC ahead of time that stands to profit from a rush of BTC to scBTC.
Here is your arb channel:
BTC -> SCbtc ->USD -> BTC
rinse and repeat
So if BTC=$500 and SCbtc=$1000:
I buy BTC for $500, convert to SCbtc, sell SCbtc for $1000, pocket $500, take the other $500 and buy BTC that can then be converted to SCbtc and be sold for $1000, ect, ect, ect
As you said, the waiting periods and tx fees come into play.
This is not even a possibility.
500$ in BTC = 500$ in SCbtc.