Ninjastic
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Ivanhoe
on 26/10/2014, 20:22:22 UTC
Quote from: NotLambchop on October 26, 2014, 08:10:35 PM
Quote from: cbeast on October 26, 2014, 06:47:25 PM
Quote from: NotLambchop on October 26, 2014, 06:13:15 PM
Quote from: Ivanhoe on October 26, 2014, 05:36:28 PM
...Mainstream use of phone started like that yes.... phone technology did not. There was lots of work in infrastructure first, what we now see in bitcoinland. I'm sure with bitcoin it won't take many decades, don"t you think?

Allright, Bitcoin is more useful than the telephone.  And the people who got the first phones, the early adopter visionaries, all got filthy rich.
You are either really bad at analogies or really good at creating false analogies.

You realize that the original analogy is contrived gibberish too, right?  Bitcoin is a Goldbergian contrivance, at best a cludgy solution to a problem existing only in the minds of a few batty libers.  


The network effect?  Sure, but how does it factor in?  Can it help us evaluate the soundness of buying and hodling Bitcoin?  Would the resulting model be verifiable/falsifiable?

If network effect was the dominant factor here, it should be reflected in Bitcoin price.  It isn't--the price has been plummeting for close to a year now.  Intentional avoidance of inconvenient evidence like this is typical of libber thinking:  Latch on to a simple-to-grasp, intuitive analogy, and ignore all IRL data which contradicts it.

Again, the network effect is a concept--it's used to illustrate why things happen after they happen.  As a model it has no predictive power, it can't tell you that shit will/will not happen.  More sophistry and illusion--commit it then to the flames Angry



It does reflect in the price, just look at long-term graphs. Short-term there are other things factored in like market psychology.

The network effect:

https://blockchain.info/en/charts/hash-rate?showDataPoints=false×pan=2year&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

https://blockchain.info/en/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Back to school kid!