we already know from your paper that there will be at least a delay due to the contest/confirmation time. also, the SPV proof is untested, unless you want to claim it's perfect right here and now, which would be foolish. these factors alone will ensure that there is a difference btwn the BTC and scBTC.
You first must burn bitcoins into SC.
So if you burn 10M of 13M BTC then the rest 3M BTC will increase in scarcity drastically. (3.25 times more scarce)
Then if scBTC will become worthless and tokens inaccessible then all value(market cap, not tokens) will be returned to BTC.
THAT will definitely not happen. otherwise, the scBTC will be transferred back to BTC almost immediately. or in fact, they would never move at all.
let me put it in simple terms w/o numbers.
you're taking a chunk of coin off a very secure ledger and moving them over to a less secure ledger. it's to be expected those coins moved will be worth less b/c they are now less secure.
b/c of arbitrage, you can expect the moved coin to drag down the price of the not moved coin to a lower equilibrium.