Gut feeling is that there's going to be a big movement upward in the next few days. I don't expect it to drop much lower from these levels.
I agree with you, except also, that I was thinking the same thing when it was bumping along at $390
Even if a small pump happens, then what? Miners, merchants and bitcoiners giving up (or cashing out at their breakeven point) will lead to more slow bleeding until market sentiment changes. And sentiments don't change from one day to another, it needs time for consolidation which we still didn't have (or a miracle).
...and yet difficulty is up and the number of transactions is at its highest.