That is why his luck % of 104.23 after 7,292 rolls is so high.
Do we know how PD calculates the luck statistic?
I just made a new account ('dooglus2') and played 24 times at 3x (33%), noting wins, losses, and luck:
wins losses luck
0 0 NaN
1 0
1 202.94
2 101.47 *
3 67.65
4 50.73
5 40.59
6 33.82
7 28.99
8 25.37
9 22.55
10 20.29
2 40.59
3 60.88
4 81.18
5 101.47 *
11 92.24
12 84.56
6 101.47 *
7 118.38
13 109.27
14 101.47 *
15 94.7
8 108.23
16 101.47 *
I can't immediately come up with the formula they're using.
When I had won 1 and lost 1, my luck was 202.94%. I had bet twice at 33%, so my expected number of wins was 0.66 and my actual number of wins was 1. How do I get 202.94% from that?
Note that my #wins was exactly double my #losses 5 times (not counting the starting 0,0 case) and each time it was, my luck was 101.47%.
Edit: this fits pretty well:
(0.6697 / 0.33) * (wins / losses)I don't know why 0.6697 though, when my chance of losing is 0.67
Dooglus, stop wasting your time calculating obscure statistics no one cares about and re-open your dice site already.
Much love.