Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: What if a Country go back to Gold (bitcoin) standard?
by
painlord2k
on 03/11/2014, 23:14:20 UTC
Depend on the size of the country.
If it is a medium sized country, like Switzerland, with a 534,500,000,000.00 M1 (in USD). Currently they have around 10% of that value in gold (53 billions over 530 billions). This is 1430 metric tons of gold.
They should buy 12.9 K tons of gold to back their currency in full at current prices of $37.5/gram.
Current global production is around 1000-1200 ton/year.

The referendum of November 30th, 2014, if passed, will force them to back the currency moving from the current 9% to 20% in five years. 1.3 KTon in 5 years or 260 tons per year.

But I digress. What would happen if they had a fully backed currency.
What did happen to Germany when they had the Deutsche Mark?
Their import/export balance would immediately go to zero. They would be forced to export as much as they import.
If imports would exceed exports gold would be exported and people would have less gold to pay for imports. Given people WANT and NEED savings at certain levels before increasing consumption/investments, as the saving go down consumptions go down. Credit inside the country (in gold) would reduce to exactly the quantity of savings in existence or less. So bubbles would be impossible to form and grow and after a few years unheard. Banks lending would reduce drastically 5 to 10 times the current levels and bank reserves would go up from 5% to 20-50% or more (because there would not be a central bank able to print gold for them). Interest rates would grow in the 5 to 10, event 20% per year (depending of conditions)

On the other side, prices of goods would collapse with the collapse of credit, so people would be able to pay cash for a house and save in a few year to buy a house with minimum need of credit. Instead of 30 year mortgage loans, people would save for three years and buy a house with a loan they would repay in other three years. Or they would save for five year and pay the house in full.

They would be forced to back up every government expense with taxes and with minimal credit. Because, if the loaners must give them gold and the government must give them back more gold, people must take in account how much gold exist to do the repayment and where they would take it, if they are able to take it.
People would be force (it is a good thing) to take care of their own saving account. With gold it is easy. Just put some coins away consistently.
The falling prices would allow people to leave cheaper and debt free. But they would NEED to work. No make-believe jobs from the government or mandated by the government or subsides for fake jobs and a lot of government employees pushing paper and fining people.