Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
inca
on 08/11/2014, 13:28:21 UTC
I respectfully disagree, we will not ever see 100 USD again, that is if we ever see it fall below - that would be the end of crypto. But this will not happen in a thousand years.

I do not know whether the price will go below 100$, but it is not impossible. 

The current price is basically the result of three major surges in demand:

(1) Jan-Apr 2013 (that increased the price by about +125$, from ~15$ to ~140);
(2) Oct-Nov 2013 (increased by about +660$, from ~140$ to ~800$), and
(3) June 2014 (about +150$, from ~450$ to ~650$).

The first two events left the price at ~800$ in Jan/2014.  From Feb to May the price fell by about -350$; the most likely cause is partial loss of the demand that caused bubble 2, the only one that seems large enough to cause such a drop.  That would explain also the continuing drop since Jun/2014 (by about -300$).

If bubble 2 (only) deflates completely, the price may fall to 275$.  A partial deflation of the other two bubbles would be enough to take the price below 100$.

I suspect that bubble 1 is Chinese too, but in the special economic zones, and perhaps with a different demographics from bubble 2.  I still don't have a clue about bubble 3, but I see signs that it may be deflating too.

These are mighty strange bubbles. They never fully deflate and keep blowing bigger and bigger!