You're missing the point. These sites survive off tiny edges. 1%, 2%. If they give you 5% back when you lose, that's +EV for you. And apparently some give 40% back when you lose!
Actually you're wrong, they lose 5% of the 1%, not 5% of the house edge.
Say im the admin, a user rolls 2.5BTC @ 2x and the number = 49.7, affiliste gives back .1BTC to the user, this would mean i lose 0.025% of my 1% house edge, not 2.5%.
Doesn't necessarily need to be loss from the house edge, but i'm sure you see what i mean.
I'm not quite following your math there. 5% of 2.5 BTC is 0.125 BTC. That's what they would pay to the affiliate if I lose a 2.5 BTC bet isn't it?
So when I bet 2.5 BTC at 2x, I have a 49.5% chance of winning 2.5 BTC, and a 50.5% chance of losing 2.5 BTC and getting 0.125 BTC back, for a net loss of 2.375 BTC.
With me so far?
My expected profit is 2.5 times 0.495 plus -2.375 times 0.505.
>>> 2.5*0.495 - 2.375*0.505
0.038125
So my expected profit on a bet of 2.5 BTC is 0.038125 BTC.
>>> 0.038125 / 2.5 * 100
1.525
That means the house edge is effectively -1.525% : the odds are in my favour by 1.525%.
So where am I wrong? Can you point out what step in my reasoning is faulty please?
Bonus policies always seemed weird to me. So according to what you said, if one does not reach the required bets after 30 days (let's say he claimed a bonus of 0.3 for this example) the 0.3 BTC bonus will be subtracted from his account but he gets the chance to keep and withdraw any winnings he made by betting with 0.6 BTC?
Yes, but since I've probably made 1000 bets of 0.1 BTC each by then, I'm very likely to have less than 0.6 BTC left. After they take off the 0.3 BTC bonus for being too slow, I have less than my 0.3 BTC deposit left.
Most casino bonuses I've played for give you a sporting chance of having your initial deposit left by the time you've cleared your bonus play-through requirements. This place seems like it doesn't. Then again I've not played at old-style casinos for many years now, so maybe they're all like this now.