Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.
by
justusranvier
on 12/11/2014, 13:35:19 UTC
You might be right, but what if you're not? If you put in a moderate amount and shit hits the fan, you'll be well of. If it doesn't you're also well off since you risked a moderate amount. You can 'go all in' now and be VERY well off, but it'll be shit when either bitcoin fails, the system gets an sublime intervention or for w/e reason the projected scenario doesn't play out. Wiping out you're entire savings now will have a large impact later in life (power of compounding). So since i'm advising people, I advise a reasonably safe move. If people can/want to risk more, they should imo (which is what I tell them then). I'm talking here about people with more than 5-10k savings, if you've less than that, I agree with you that the % should be higher.

To clarify, I'm using myself as a base scenario. i'm mid/end 20's and have build up some savings (mid 5 fig's) over the last years with a well paid job, poker and bitcoin (i've been a buyer since feb '13). I have no debt (no mortgage, not buying in this market).  I own gold/silver (phys) some stocks (which i've been liquidating the last months) some currency (home/foreign) and a lot of crypto. I'd say the ratio's are 15%, 10%, 25% 50%. This is a portfolio i'm very comfortable with at the moment. To be fair, I do have a healthy (above average) appetite for risk. For people in a similair situation (steady influx of money/time horizon/savings/etc) I feel comfortable advising 5-10% for the reasons stated above. More if they are more like me riskwise.

I think moving all in wouldn't be the optimal play for me.
I'm talking about people who have the ability and opportunity to develop useful skills, who are early in their career.

The most important part of what I suggested was the actions wherein they acquire and hone useful skills.

If somebody at age 25 gets unlucky with asset allocation but has marketable skills it's no big deal because they can just earn it back again.

For anyone over 40 I have no advice, because they don't matter any more - their contribution to how the future will look has ended or is close to ending.