Was anybody expecting the drop from 450 to 380?
Me, not exactly. I thought a drop was likely at some point after the nov 12 rocket launch, but didn't care to guess when. When we got back to 430, I had this idea there was a very good chance of going to about 380. Why?
I guess it would've been cooler had I posted this a few hours ago, but: Look at the mini-trend from about nov 9th to nov 12th, and extrapolate where that kind of slope would have had us at, had the price not spiked even more steeply on the 12th. About 380 on stamp...
Did I trade it? No. I have hunches like everyone, this one happened to be supportable by drawing a line on a chart. I don't have cause to believe my hunches are right more often than not, so I don't trade.