This is why I think that that cannot be the support for the bitcoin price for a long, long time. I think that the main steady state drive will be "buying stuff", with my formula.
Speculation will be the driving force for Bitcoin until mass adoption.
It was designed by Satoshi to be so. Speculation is the bootstrapping method for Bitcoin to gain mass acceptance and only then will it realize its promises as a mean-of-exchange
Of course. But speculation is always based upon an expectation in the future, and if that expectation is wrong, the speculator looses. So rational speculation is based upon a long term estimate of the fundamentals.
And my aim here is to find out what those fundamentals are. As you say, it can be mass adoption as "means-of-exchange", and then the "quantity theory of money" jumps in to indicate what will be the price of things in bitcoin, which will inversely indicate what will be the market price of bitcoin (as compared to other monetary assets such as $ that can buy the same stuff).
The market value of bitcoin "as a means of exchange" will then be the fundamental, and it is determined by how much stuff one can buy with it, and what is the average holding time between such buys, as that will determine the aggregate demand for bitcoin, and hence determine its market value.
The *other* fundamental is "store of value for the long term". In my opinion, that can only come in once bitcoin is established as a means-of-exchange for some time. Maybe I'm wrong here.
But speculation by itself, cannot be a fundamental. It has to AIM for a fundamental. And I'd like, in this discussion, to find out what it is.