What are the bitcoin fundamentals right now ?  How much stuff is bought with bitcoin, and what is the bitcoin velocity ?
What is the fraction of, say, the gold market bitcoin is claiming right now ?

Honestly, if you look at all those fundamentals, bitcoin right now, without any speculative rise in the future, is largely over-priced.  I don't think that there's $ 20 billion worth of stuff is sold every year in bitcoin ($ 5 billion market cap, and velocity of 4, like USD), even on black markets, with  bitcoin.  I don't think that bitcoin took over 0.1% of the gold market.

These are the fundamentals that could justify a market cap of $ 5 billion.  

So most people are speculating on higher fundamentals in the future, which is why the price is so high as it is today.

That there have been speculative bubbles in the past, when there were not so many traders and exchanges, especially the bubble to $1200,- doesn't mean at all that the fundamentals in the near future justify such a price and certainly not the fundamentals today.  In fact, the bitcoin market doesn't even seem very liquid (in the sense that there are a lot of bitcoins with very low velocity, which haven't participated in the market often), which means that the current price actually only applies dynamically to a smaller fraction of the actual coins than those really existing.

So I am not surprised at all that the price is at the current level - I even think it is mainly speculative aiming for future fundamentals which are much higher than the actual fundamentals today (gold market, and merchand adoption).

I think that with all the trading going on now, there's no chance anymore to see these speculative bubbles as in the past.  I don't think people are going to fall again for a surge to more than $1000,- in a few weeks.  I don't think such prices are sustainable for the moment, and so everybody is going to expect a falling after such a potential surge - which means that the number of buyers at those high prices are not going to be able to sustain the price there, everybody expecting a lower price a few months later.  A market usually "sobers up" after a few burst bubbles, and I think that last year's bubble and the decline afterwards has sobered up more than one trader.

So the only movements I'm actually expecting are slow market movements following the speculation on the long-term fundamentals which are market share in the gold market, and merchand adoption, which can be higher or lower than current market price, and will subsequently have the market price evolve towards it, upward, or downward.