Yeah, this is basically what 90% of the people around here accept as a fact. This has already been priced in mostly (hopefully)
Has it? Look at the risk/cost/benefits and the competitive landscape prior to gen 1, compare it to the situation now. The cost of a gen 4 maskset alone would have allowed you develop, build, and
deploy enough gen 1 miners to rule 90+% of the network back in the day. Also, back then, missing specs by a factor 3x or more was no big deal. If they miss gen 4 power efficiency by as little as 30%, they are pretty much hosed.
So anyone who thinks a share today is worth the same as during its IPO, Ive got a cloudhashing contract to sell to you.
Of course the btc market as a whole now is worth alot more, so that must be factored in.
And how many asic companies are actually for sale in the form of shares? AFAIK one. Rareness costs, bitcoiners know that.