http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98048Theres ZERO statistical validity to such nonsense.
You haven't studied the implementation of the ECM model so you have no way of knowing what statistical models are used. I haven't either, because it isn't open source (yet). But Armstrong has said astutely that all the economists are using statistical models with data that only goes back less than 100 years, so their models can't possibly be valid. That means he (after spending over a $billion in today money) on collecting data since Mesopotamia has found that that the correct statistics requires a very long sampling interval.What I said is that it wont be as difficult for the US as it will be for others (for many good reasons).
I guess you haven't noticed how much more developed the police state is in the USA (with a 99% conviction rate and paramilitized local "peace" officers) as compared to any where else, even communist China has a lower percentage of the population incarcerated.@Jon
I agree Armstrong writes in disjoint blog posts which makes his theme incoherent to most readers.
You need to go to his ECM models page and understand that model first, so his disjointed blog posts can make sense.
2011 was the start of a 4.3 year turn up in the ECM which is currently in a 51.6 year overall Private wave.
2007.15, 2015.75, and 2024.25 will all be turns down in the ECM and will mean renewed contagion for government (Public) woes, getting worse each time. Until we finally reset the world monetary system and start anew in a 51.6 year Public wave starting 2032.