I don't use to open discussions here because all my questions have already been answered somewhere in this forum however I cannot understand what is going on in these days with the bitcoin price. Let me explain myself:
It is clear for me that in this year (2014) we are a lot better than years before. We can buy directly with bitcoins in overstock and paypal has "integrated" bitcoin in its payment system. I also saw a browser extension that allow us to buy in amazon (there is a middleman).
Without MtGox and after the 2013's bubble the ecosystem looks healthier than before.
There weren't bad news in 2014, no more repetitive-fear-generator SilkRoad / drugs / isis / satan news. In fact there were more good news thanks to new projects/startups.
I think that in this atmosphere the bitcoin's price shouldn't go down. What is going on? Do you know?
I think the market price is overall correct, and I don't think it is manipulated long-term. The fundamentals at this moment would give you probably a price which is way lower than the current price (the amount of stuff bought with bitcoin - mainly the black market, and the gold market share). $10.- wouldn't surprise me. So a serious part of the current price is the speculative estimation of future fundamentals and their probability. If you give it 3% chance that a coin will reach $10 000.-, you may be willing to put $300.- in a coin now. Well, less, because of risk aversion.
The other good indicators simply increase slightly the chance that one day, bitcoin will have stronger fundamentals. That would on one hand go for a higher speculative price now. On the other hand, the bubble from MtGox is still deflating. One was around $100.- before.
So you should take as a baseline, $100.- or so, and consider the price increase relative to that. If all the good news would double chances for bitcoin, the right price would be $200.-.