What is the probability that the reason for the non movement of Satoshi coins is that the private key has been lost ( and what implications does this have?)?
I think and am almost positive, since for sure Satoshi looks on Bitcoin as his baby.
So i think if he would lost access to his big wallet, he would let that everyone know. This way everyone would know there are less bitcoins in the game and for miners would be more worth to mine them and bitcoin would be more secure.
The only reason i se he might wait is if there is better timing for this news.