Re: [10000Th] Eligius: 0% Fee BTC, 105% PPS NMC, No registration, CPPSRB
I find the BitcoinWisdom predictor to be fairly reliable. It doesn't swing too much. I don't know what algorithm they use, but it's resistant to at least some of the flaws that I've seen with others. I think it must use some kind of upward bias where it more heavily weights the most recently seen high-point for hashrate. This works on an intuitive level because while new mining hardware might be turned on for testing then taken offline while it's shipped out to customers, after a week or two it will tend to turn on and stay on permanently. So if the network hits a hashrate peak and then drops down, it's a safe bet that it will soon hit that level again.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Thanks. I don't like bitcoinwisdom at all. I always find it to be wrong.
M
I don't think it's perfect, but it is better than any others that I have seen. The problem that I can see with this method:
Quote
The estimated next difficulty in my app projects what the next change will be IF the blocks/time solved since last diff change remain constant.
is that in a time of hashrate being added to the network (which has been nearly constant over the last several years) the blocks/time solved since last diff change will decidedly NOT remain constant, but will drop. Perhaps Bitcoinwisdom has over-built this idea into their algorithm, so in times like the present where hashrate seems to be leveling off, it is more inaccurate than during times of rising hashrate. As praeluceo said, any predictor is inherently wrong because the future is unknowable, but I have found Bitcoinwisdom to be a better predictor than all others that I've seen. It certainly converges to the true value as the blocks lead up to the difficulty change.