Post
Topic
Board Exchanges
Re: [OFFICIAL]Bitfinex.com first Bitcoin P2P lending platform for leverage trading
by
HowardF
on 03/12/2014, 18:18:18 UTC
I agree that rates on BTC swaps are typically very low, and I have always found that weird, but it makes sense. Demand for shorting bitcoin is very low. I think it is mainly due to the fact that those who use bitcoin and have gone as far as to open an account to trade it are usually by that point "believers" in bitcoin. They are bullish, if they weren't, they would have just ignored bitcoin, and not started trading it. It is really weird though, because I am a "true believer" in bitcoin, and I think it will eventually be very valuable as more people see what an improvement it is on the current system, HOWEVER, thinking that its 5-10 year outlook is very bright has literally almost no bearing on where I see prices going within the next 30 days. So, since the max term of a swap is 30 days, it is very possible, and sometimes very probable that prices can go down over the short term, which is why I have always been surprised in the lack of interest in the shorting market. I think this is partly due to what I mentioned above, most people don't want to "root against bitcoin", but also, I think in general, shorting is less intuitive than going long, when in fact, a correctly timed short results in you ending up with MORE bitcoin, while going long ends up with you getting more dollars...

I think this is pretty much right on, and its a shame too.  Its part of the reason the bitcoin market is so broken.  People trade it on emotion more so than anything else I've ever dealt with financially, and it seems to have attracted a huge number of tech savvy people, with little or no trading sense, but lots of disposable income that they don't mind risking trying to build up something they believe in.  While thats admirable, it also leads to a broken market that will struggle to gain mainstream acceptance.


That being said, I think it also means that there is a strong case for short term shorting in that it is MUCH less costly to go short than it is to go long...if you figure the price will go up and down, you would make more by trading the downswings than by trading the upswings since the cost of your position, fees being equal, will be defined by the cost of the swaps (again, assuming that prices swing up and down, or in other words, holding the viability of your trading strategy to be equal).

This is without a doubt true.  Its so cheap to short on margin that I have no qualms about holding for the full 30 days if i think there's a chance the price is heading down.  Even the smallest of price moves will cover the tiny interest payments that you end up making.  By far the best short terms gains are to be had in shorting, not longing.

(Of course, I'm saying this as someone who makes most of my income by lending USD on margin, so please, keep taking long positions everyone.  Yey bitcoin! To the Moon!  Grin  )