Remember when we mined the block where some poor guy accidentally included a 200 BTC transaction fee?  Friedcat refunded it immediately.  Nobody could have done anything had he kept it.  Thousands of dollars straight out of his own pocket.  He didn't waffle about it.  He didn't consult the opinions of others.  He just did the right thing and gave the guy his money back.

ASICminer may sink or swim.  They have made some pretty glaring missteps and pissed away whatever advantage they once had to dominate the market.  But they did it honestly.  They have paid back 6 times IPO, it isn't Friedcat's fault people got carried away on the price they paid for shares.  He could have sold out and walked away a rich man.  He didn't.

Whatever problems there have been are understandable albeit disappointing.  They are slamming out custom chip designs as fast as they can and rushing them into production.  Failure shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.  THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT, it is speculation.  Startups fail, only something like 1 in 10 ever turn a profit for initial investors.

I believe ASICminer's management team is honest.  I have reasonable faith they are learning from their mistakes.  I am certain that this company is the only shot I have at being profitably involved in mining going forward.  I recognize that my money could evaporate into nothing.  If Gen 4 succeeds I calculate we could make a tidy profit with today's share price.  The last year has sucked, but that is meaningless going forward.