hmm.. so I have to keep mining with Eligius in order to get back to expected return. I'm not particularly well versed in the mathematics of probability.. but isn't this a bit like the gambler's fallacy? ie just because I've tossed a run of 10 tails in a row doesn't mean I'm more likely to get a run of heads. Does the maths really say It'll come good for me?
It is possible that you have bad luck "forever" according to gambler's fallacy. Be aware that arsbitcoin had this issue with their payout scheme and towards the end all the miners were out a LOT of btc and the luck slowly got better but never recovered the massive negative state they had reached and then the pool shutdown and the miners never got it back.
how can you call -1.138% Massive negative state...wondering what adjective you will use for itzod's -9.611%...