invariably, as we all know, this industry is never a one-horse race. All good points made above, but for this GEN however, it may well boil down to who gets first out the traps. That said, having samples to test does no way go the length to offer a best buy, just yet.
interesting times ahead.
I think AM will be first on the scene with their 4th gen chips, with Spondoolies about a month or two behind with their next gen.
On this occasion, i have no insider knowledge as I did with KfC bungled attempt at 20nm, but here is my take on it.
FC was always going to want to be
first to announce here, due to the fact that their shares are of public interest to members here and early announcements are beneficial to the price of the shares.
Other companies will not need to give out any info prior to an actual miner being launched, and because of this, as ever, i'd expect a very close time scale between Bitmain, Bitfury, AM and SP-Tech to market. (forget KNC - theirs specs will not be competitive).
Batch chips are likely to be baked and ready for all four, by latest, March 2015 and from that point, the real race will be to bring a miner to market.
If AM decide to just sell chips and not build, this may or may not work in their favour, depending on whether they are pushing for pre-orders of those chips.
IMHO, if AM does push manufacturers to pre-purchase, i feel that will show a slight lack of confidence that they can bring the best chip to market.
If they do not push pre-orders, i wish them well and look forwards to a closely run contest.