You guys keep saying its just simple supply and demand.....that's like saying you just buy low and sell high.

There are a multitude of complex interactions going on.

With some numbers to compare we might have a better idea of what is happening...

What is the current global demand in bbls?
What is the Saudi output in barrels vs last year?
What is current global demand in barrels?
What is the change in total world production?
What percentage of world supply is US shale production?
What is the current rate of oil field decline globally?
And many others...

Once we have some actual numbers you can see where the changes are taking place.

Some say the Saudis are attempting a price war on US shale production since shale drilling is relatively expensive and they can't weather a price drop for long. This will allow the middle east to raise prices in the future without competition from the US.

I'm no expert but speculation without facts is no way to go if you are trying to make an investment decision.