I have stumbled upon this chart on the internet, regarding the Gartner's hype cycle:
As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?
As of July 2014, cryptos just came out of the peak of inflated expectations to enter the trough of disillusionment. It is safe to say that the trough of disillusionment don't last only 6 months but typically can last 2 to 3 years. So maybe Bitcoin will be as revolutionary as we think but the bear market will last another 1 or 2 years. What do you think about that?
I'm hearing that timeframe thrown around a lot (1 or 2 years).
It coincides with the next halving, to it's an intuitive fit. It also makes sense to see a long sideways (or slightly downwards or whatever) stretch as it usually happens in bitcoin after a huge runup has corrected. It also makes sense that it would take longer than in the past because the market has grown in number of participants, so it's quite conceivable it behaves more sluggishly.
However my gut says we'll see a substantial rise before 1 year has passed (i.e. in 2015). Not necessarily breaking the ath yet, but substantial. Why? Continual adoption plus the experience of the last halving will have the effect that more players will price in the halving sooner (or at all) than last time, so we might get an ignition before, not after the actual reward halving occurs.
At some point the rising price will create another hype in a positive feedback loop. Noone know where that will take us and really noone knows when or even if it will occur. Some black swan type event can happen at any time external to bitcoin and trigger it, too.
I'm betting on it. Be it 1 day or 2 years.
If bitcoin fails to break the ath by end of 2016 or falls and remains below $266 for an extended period (months), then I'm worried.