Post
Topic
Board Gambling
Re: Primedice | The Most Popular Bitcoin Game | 1% Edge | Active Chat | Free BTC
by
Josepht
on 16/12/2014, 19:27:50 UTC

I don't think you'll lose if you roll only 50 or 100 times.
Of course it depends on your bankroll, but I think someone playing martingale should be able to cover 10 losses. The chance of that happening is 1 in 1024.

I do agree with you that you will lose eventually. I just think it's not likely to happen within 50 or 100 rolls.

The chance of happening 10 loses in a row is a lot more common than 1/1024. I don't know how you get that number but do you realize that every single bet is independent from each other? It seems you don't, like %90 of matingale users.That means you cant exactly predict the time of that +10 losing serie(s). You may get 10+ loses in your first session. than bam. you re out.

Of course it can happen in the first session, but it might as well happen in the 2000th session.
Yes, I do kno w each roll is independent. That's how I calculated the chance of 1/1048 of losing in a single session.
Assuming you have a 50% chance, 10 losses in a row will be the chance of 0.5^10=1/1024

So if you would try unlimited times, on average you'll lose 10 times in a row after 1024 times.

Please prove me where I'm wrong.

I assure you, it will happen way before the 2000th game:) I am the voice of experience.

You are wrong because, you broke the law of Murphy. This is his world and in his world, majority always lose. If you think you are "the one" thats another story.

Your 'experience' is just based on a few games you played.
I am talking about endless games. On average there will be a 10 times losing streak every 1024 bets.

I'm sorry bro, math is on my side here.

The problem is, you dont make countless times of bets. Not an average person does that. = Majority. Even you make "0" bets you ll get bored evetually.

This is not math. This is gambling. And when you gamble math is not on your side. Sorry for the hard truth.

Indeed, no one makes countless bets. It is however the closest we can come to reality. You said that a 10 times losing streak happens more often then once in 1024 bets, based on your experience.
At least my calculation is closer to the truth then your 'experience'.

Can anyone maybe help me explain to this guy how it really works? It seems that he has a hard time understanding it.