Is H7N9 the next pandemic?Armstrong's highly accurate cyclic computer models
predict the peak of a global pandemic to occur in 2019.
The plague cycle appears to be reaching an important high in 2019. This may be the preparation stages right now for it and it may be Ebola. We are attempting to gather the historical population and death numbers of past plagues to try to gauge this as a percentage of total population to see if we are talking about WWI epidemic levels or 14th century levels of a 50% death rate. It is not just the plague. It appears that everything that can go wrong will go wrong. It is the collapse in pensions, the sovereign debt crisis, the war cycle, plagues, it just seems everything is coming at the same time. Strangely enough, we are running models on countries to see where is the best place. So far, New Zealand and Scotland are showing up. This is not a forecast yet. We have a lot of countries to run.
The Black Death (Bubonic Plague) reduced Europe's population by some 50 - 60% which ended the problem of oversupply of agricultural labor (thus slavery and wages below subsistence levels) which was preventing the rise of the Industrial Age:
http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2010/10/malthus-and-capital.htmlhttp://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2011/06/trotting-ahead-of-malthus.htmlhttp://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2014/10/transportation-divergence-and.htmlYou see once excess capital could get into the hands of the masses, then ingenuity that can only come accretively from the bottom up was enabled. I explained in the following links why knowledge is suppressed by top-down structures (and even direct voting is a top-down structure, because the thing voted on is a collective action, i.e. in collectivized action the self interest incentives are misaligned with the global optimization).
http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.html#Algorithm_!=_Entropyhttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365141.msg9874688#msg9874688Note those pestilent economic conditions in medieval Europe were perhaps the fundamental cause of Europe's low fertility west of the Hajnal line, which is ironic because now Europe's plummeting fertility and huge demographic and economic ramifications are ostensibly caused by the economic conditions being too artificially rich funded by a massive unsustainable debt:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hajnal_line#Economy| http://i0.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Dollar-Vortex.jpg?resize=259%2C194 | So I was thinking what is the Malthus ball-and-chain hanging around society's neck that is driving us towards this viciously collegial downward spiral of economic implosion and trying to suppress the fledgling knowledge age with totalitarian omniscient snooping national security agencies and internet kill switches?
Boomers! Old people with life-time tenure jobs, fat pensions, and state-guaranteed health care the product of rampant socialism. They have put our political systems into gridlock which is allowing the banksters to run amok because the boomers don't care for as long as they get theirs too:
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/19/banks-win-again-delay-repeal-volcker-rule/
For example, as a result there is up to 60% youth unemployment in southern Europe (and this will spread to at least France if not all of Europe by or after 2016). |
So I thought to myself "hmm, how would nature deal with this pesky species? Viruses, they seem vulnerable to viruses...":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4TUO0s1xG8#t=180So I was wondering if any of the recent surges of bird flu viruses afflicted predominantly old people. And voila! H7N9 with a 30% mortality rate affects a median age of 64, with 62% over the age 60:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H7N9#Age.2Fgender_distributionhttp://www.wpro.who.int/wpsar/volumes/04/2/2013_PE_EMT_Arima/en/And the vaccine is expected to be 59+% effective for healthy adults, except past experience portends that efficacy can fall as low as 9% for those over the age of 65:
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/779816http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2013/05/experts-offer-dim-view-potential-vaccine-response-h7n9So if H7N9 can kill over 30% of the boomers, that would perhaps be one way of bottoming of this downward economic spiral by 2024 or so. Also it could potentially remove China's demographic problem of elderly scheduled for 2030, and help China bottom by 2020 and as predicted by Armstrong's computer model become the new financial capital of the world by 2032. So far it also afflicts males 71% so perhaps it could solve China's gender imbalance (the artifact of the one-child policy and an economic preference for boys).
Also H7N9 has a similarity to the Bubonic Plague in that its zoönosis is facilitated by the extremely overconcentrated population of the animal carrier in proximity to humans. In medieval Europe the rodents were in proximity due to poor sanitary conditions (symbiotic problem of delayed Industrial Age) and highly labor intensive agriculture. Today we mass produce animals (e.g. Mad Cow disease) in extremely crowded and unnatural conditions, and these domesticated animals have no naturally diverse immunity to these viruses that the wild animals spread which has apparently facilitated inter-mutation from H9N2. Also like Bubonic Plague, H7N9 doesn't kill the animal carrier. There is some evidence of potential human-to-human mutation in H7N9, which is necessary for pandemic.
http://outbreaknewstoday.com/an-avian-flu-primer-83074/Just a guess.
