Most pandemics occur when a pathogen jumps a species barrier to a new host (humans) that are not adapted to it. Such a process should be random and follow a Poisson distribution. The expected time between pandemics should therefore follow an exponential distribution. I am skeptical of the validity of a cyclical model predicting a definitive pandemic date.
It is not likely random because I explained how it was likely man's economy that caused the Black Death, because of the overconcentration of fleas and squalor in proximity to humans, because over the overpopulation meant less than a subsistence wage for agriculture meant the Industrial Age did not occur yet meant that squalor was worse
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Have you looked at the overcrowded, inhumane way we farm raise poultry and other farm animals?
I agree that that economic collapse and overpopulation could lead to worsening squalor increased contact with infected animals and increased chance of a pathogen jumping the species barrier. If economic collapse and downturns occurred cyclically that could introduce a cyclic increase in jump probability and the Poisson distribution would not hold.
However, all that would mean is that there would be times of increased risk of a pandemic and times of lesser risk. A higher probability is no guarantee that such a pathogen will jump. The Jump itself would still be a random process. It seems ridiculous to me for anyone to claim there is definitively going to be a pandemic in 2018. The only way to know that with certainly would be if you were the one introducing the pandemic.
You are citing the obvious first-order effect and not the generative essence. What leads to massive use of contraceptives? It is when women are supported by the State so they don't have to worry about who is going to provide for them.
The state is not responsible for all problems. Desire for and obtaining sex has been the driving evolutionary force behind successful reproduction for the history of our race until about 60 years ago. Suddenly around 60 years ago sex and reproduction decoupled.
In a heartbeat the primary selective driver of human evolution became irrelevant. The drop in population fertility you are seeing is simply the result of a large portion of humanity suddenly finding themselves biologically unfit in our new environment. People who do not actively want children simply no longer reproduce. These individuals are a substantial portion of the population and are now being selected out. Give it several generations eventually most everyone will want children most men will hate condoms and many women will find the pill makes them sick. Humans will adapt as all life does.
(they State even legislating them to receive preferential treatment in school, workforce, and marriage), so they can have affairs with bad boy losers and use contraceptives with their enslaved, good boy beta-male husbands so they force their slaves to financially support the children he didn't know he didn't procreate.
Women have a strong preference for hypergamy. It is only the reality of the market that they can't support themselves that causes them to behave and serve a man to raise a family.
Its easy to confirm paternity with a simple genetic test. Certainly there has been a power shift towards woman over the last several decades. When women were forced to be subservient to men and had no access to birth control they had very limited choice about the number of children they had. Now given the choice many are opting to forgo childbirth altogether. Those that do will be selected out of the population leaving a world where most women want children.
This process is not going to reverse. For men and women who want families it is important to recognize that the human race is currently being subjected to a mild form of
sterile insect technique. Choose your mate wisely.
When the State removes the effects of the free market and attempts to establish women as equal to men (which they are not), then fertility and society collapse. Watch 2016 onwards the horrific outcome...
I agree that women are not equal to men. Women are more compassionate, more loving, more social, and more self sacrificing. A strong argument can be made that they are the superior subgroup.