Post
Topic
Board Pools
Re: [10000Th] Eligius: 0% Fee BTC, 105% PPS NMC, No registration, CPPSRB
by
Grix
on 22/12/2014, 16:56:48 UTC

I had NEVER seen luck fluctuating above 100% over 30 or 90 days. Have you seen it?
If it is pure statistics, this should be symmetrical, isn't it?


That's an interesting point.  I'm curious if there's a mathematical explanation for that.

M

There is a downward bias due to orphan blocks.  Long-term average should be around 97%-98%.  Remember, the longer the period, the more the luck converges to the "true" number.  It would have to be pretty extreme good luck to hit 100%+ for 30 or 90 days.

Also I think the number of blocks found per time is bionomially distributed, which I don't think is a symmetrical curve. But maybe that is accounted for so that the luck figure is still symmetrical.