I meant 10-20 odds that it is real (or at least will last for another few months.)
So you agree that its a likely scam than? So your whole argument is that you think its only 90% likely scam instead of 99%.... this is silly...
none of us have enough data to argue the probabilities of that spread.
We just think its likely a scam... which could mean anything from 60% to 99% confidence.