There was a specific person on irc (if you really want I can dig up the log) who told me 99%. That's what inspired me to bet.
This thread didn't sound like the "we think it might be a scam, ranging from 60% to 99%" thread. People are calling anyone who defends gaw a shill, so they must think that no sane person would defend gaw, which means they hold a very high confidence that it's a scam. That seems to be what my thought process was as far as I can remember.
You seem to also agree there is a high confidence that paycoin is a scam. You believe it is 80-90% a scam ... that's a high confidence in most peoples books.
Also, it's possible that they'll be trading on an exchange for a little less (18-19) which I'd still consider not bust.
From reading hashtalk most early investors simply want to cash out 20-30% of their paycoins. If they can't even fulfill those orders at 20usd than Josh was lying through his teeth about his millions of investor capital intended to shore up the price of paycoin to 20 usd.