BitcoinBrothers out of Germany claimed in November this year to have an ASIC based on a 16nm 3D finFET and have plans to unleash 300-400 PH onto the network in Q1 2015. They also claim each of their 6 PH machines will consume 0.9 MW. So using your initial assumption, it appears they are poised take a little more than 50% of the network (assuming they add 300 PH) using only 45 MW.
I haven't dug very deeply into this claim but they seem to be echoing the claims of KNCminer as far as the 16nm 3D finFET based ASIC. I haven't seen power consumption estimates from KNC however.
Not sure where (electricity rate) they plan to drop their bomb, but the numbers you have posted put their power consumption at 0.15W/G.
Official claims we have (also from my internal report):
- Spondoolies Tech 0.05W/G mid 2015
- KnCMiner 16nm 0.07W/G early 2015
- Cointerra 16nm 5X (?) Q1 2015 (5X refers to their TerraMiner IV I guess)
- Bitfury sub-0.1J/G mid-year 2015
Not sure what to put on the Chinese ASIC manufacturers when it comes to official claims (Bitmain, Avalon, InnoSilicon, who else is significant or still in business?).
The above figures are all somewhat speculative, there is nothing remotely close to them currently on sale, and anything that does come out is likely to be running deep sub threshold, so you'll need 2 or 3 times as many chips to get competitive hash rates per unit area of silicon. This is clearly what AM have done, same as Bitfury. It's not new or 'experimental', companies have been doing this for years.
The only one that looks realistic (in both term of power consumption and silicon efficiency) is Cointerra's of 0.225 W/(GH/sec). KNC's is pure fantasy and Spondoolies said they would aim for their figure. I'm sure they'll get there but I'm also sure they'll be honest about how they did it ......