Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Probability of Next Block Within 10 Minutes
by
bf4btc
on 29/12/2014, 00:55:03 UTC
It's a Poisson process, with a mean of 10 minutes. So...

What is the probability that the next block will be found within 10 minutes from now?
63.212%

Or within 1 minute?
9.516%

Or 10 seconds?
1.653%

Or 1 second?
0.167%
Technically speaking the chances are somewhat better then this because additional miners have apparently been added to the network (net of miners that have been removed, in terms of hashrate). The above percentages would be correct in the event that the apparent hashrate was exactly the same as it was when the difficulty last changed