The biggest players, aside from central banks, are pension funds, who manage tens or hundreds of billions. We will not be seeing them for a long long time. They move as a herd, and they haven't even really begun to move into gold in any significant way (my guess is under 2% of pension assets are in gold), much less the teeny tiny asset that is bitcoin.
They also tend to have very strict rules about diversification, and allowed % in certain types of funds. For example, a given pension isn't going to be able to invest in anything that isn't AAA rated by Moody's or S&P, that means no chance of investing in bitcoins.
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BoardBitcoin Discussion
Re: Background checks on persons vital in the Bitcoin eco system ?
by
[Coins!]
on 02/03/2013, 02:02:19 UTC
Hi Herodes,
What is your address and social security number?
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BoardMining
Re: Ex user re-interested in Bitcoin. Mining still relevant?
Yes, if I take the year to date into account and assume difficulty stabilises at close to its current level when price stabilizes (which seems reasonable) then the situation looks a bit better actually.
It is not reasonable. Difficulty will continue to rise.
You are incorrect. Your method multiplies 57% by the current payout - this would mean that we now get 57% of the blocks we did before in a given time period. This means the mining rate is (1/0.57)-1 = 75% slower, which conincides with a 75% increase in difficulty.
Here is the correct calculation:
average time = difficulty * 2**32 / hashrate (straight from bitcoin wiki)
Hashrate is constant, only variable is difficulty. So in calculating increase in time per block for a difficulty we can simplify this to:
delta (avg. time) = delta (difficulty)
If difficulty is 57% more, then average time per block is 57% more. So if it took 1 day to get a block before, now it takes 1.57 days. Thus, your payout per day is now 1 block / 1.57 days or .636 blocks/day. Or in our case, payout was 1.146 BTC per day, it is now 1.146/1.57 = 0.73 BTC per day.
In the future it'd be good if you didn't insult before you knew you were right...
I stand corrected.
0.73 is actually significantly more than .65 btc/day.
Should have used the alloscomp calculator!
7M difficulty at 1.0Ghash is 0.14 BTC/day. That is 75% more than I had previously calculated (0.08). Looks like I will be in this game for 7 more difficulties, not 5 more : )
Thanks Talldude et al (srs). I am reworking my #'s. I might end up with 10 BTC after all at my 330mhash.
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BoardBitcoin Discussion
Re: Extended Difficulty Forecast
by
[Coins!]
on 24/06/2011, 19:47:29 UTC
chodapa, what do you think the odds are of hitting 7m difficulty before the end of August?
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BoardBitcoin Discussion
Re: Watching amateur finance types flail
by
[Coins!]
on 24/06/2011, 18:58:07 UTC
John, if these problems are as classic as you claim, then surely their solutions are also classic, and will be straightforward to implement.
I don't know what math you use, but by my math 1.146 BTC / 1.57 = 0.73 BTC, unless I'm missing something...
A 50% increase in difficulty is a 1/3 reduction of mining speed.
You have to divide the difference between difficulty A and Difficulty B by Difficulty A and then multiply that by the mining-rate in Difficulty A to get the mining rate in Difficulty B
(1.379-0.877)/0.877 *1.146 = Your answer. (0.65)
I really hope people who are throwing money at mining are capable of 5th grade math
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BoardBitcoin Discussion
Re: $300 Bitcoin "Guess the Price" Contest
by
[Coins!]
on 24/06/2011, 15:36:46 UTC
Aug 1st will see 3 more difficulties.
1.37M until July 2nd (current) 2.5M until July 12 3.5M until July 23 4.7M until Aug 3rd
So in the middle of the 4.7M difficulty, BTC will need to be worth $80 to remain an equivalent difficulty:price ratio.