I could accept that as a possibility if you can explain the following:
You are missing my major point as usual, either intentionally or not.
If you read what I wrote prior and weren't so superficial and stuck in your box,
then you would understand my argument is based on a simple premise:
My simple premise all along:
"If Antpool/Bitmain currently states (the Bitmain public statement) that they do
not think patching ASICboost is appropriate and think it should be opened to all
miners to use now and into the future, and patching it will "hurt their patent
holders", why did they originally agree to and in good faith sign the HK agreement
which would have done what they currently do not want?"
You have never addressed this simple issue. There are many possible answers to
this question. Some are reasonable and possible and some are conspiracy. I have
attempted to understand why throughout this thread, with one possibility that the
miners did not do their due diligence before agreeing. You disagree and think they
did so and still went forward. Yet I do not recall you ever addressing this or providing
your theory as to this aspect. You keep going around in circles without directly
providing a possible puzzle piece to my simple premise.
So now, prove me wrong and explain a rational reason why they were for SegWit
Softfork originally, when you admit it would hurt their ASICboost use? Is your
argument that AntPool/Bitmain was willing to gimp or outright brick their chips
and any future possibility of use, in exchange for the 2MB hardfork bump? Is that
you belief? Was Antpool/Bitmain going to "take one for the team"? Is that your
explanation? Please elaborate on this aspect.
I never said you were entirely wrong throughout this thread, I only stated that
your current explanation and outline never addresses the important issues, one
being my simple premise. Your disagreement with me centers around you never
addressing this aspect.
You have not explained your reasoning or addressed my simple premise. Please
explain to me your nonconspiratorial reasoning as to this specific issue.
Ok let's say for a moment I explore your conclusion that 'Miners (especially Jihan) were using ASICBoost, ASICBoost was an important part of their businesses, they would like to see ASICBoost continue to work, they would also reject any proposals that may affect ASICBoost'.
When I explore this possibility, a few issues pop up:
1.There is still no evidence that miners have been using ASICBoost.
(That's why I kept asking you for evidence to support your claim).
2.SegWit was incompatible with ASICBoost right at the beginning.
(Even if I entertain your idea that Jihan simply overlooked in the beginning, I believe he would have pulled out much sooner.)
3.If I am Jihan, one of the most experienced miner in existence, I have patened ASICBoost, and I have been using ASICBoost and I want to continue using it.
Then I am someone with clear understanding of the internals of the entire mining operation, someone who knows better than anyone else what would make ASICBoost work better, and what would make ASICBoost stop working.
Since ASICBoost directly affects my profit, when I look at new proposals, one of the first thing I look at will be how this proposal will affect ASICBoost, it is very unlikely for me to suddenly become a newbie and overlook obvious changes, such as the coinbase now has a 'witness root hash', which changes every time transactions are reordered, rending my ASICBoost useless.
(I find it hard to believe that if other devs can see ASICBoost doesn't work on SegWit, an experienced miner who depends on ASICBoost would miss it)
4.Blockstream/Core have been intentionally stalling on blocksize increase, Luke Jr later even suggested changing it to 300kb, they also made changes to the code so that tx fee would remain high for longer, some of them were flat out insulting the miners, they clearly have been acting in bad faith all year long. SegWit's design is also problematic, it does not offer true blocksize increase.
After a year of stagnation, 1M blocks are full all the time, if miners continue to do nothing about the blocksize, the situation is going to hurt Bitcoin's growth, stalling for another year means losing a year's worth of potential extra fee from new growth tx.
If miners give in and support SegWit's fake blocksize increase, it'll also hurt their profit, miners were expecting 2MB HF non-witness blocksize increase when they signed the agreement, Blockstream/Core later turned it into a fake 1.7MB increase that'll take a long time to reach.
Plus, they simply don't trust Blockstream/Core at this point, remember, some miners wanted 4M or 8M blocks.
All these are realistic reasons for miners to switch their support to something else that has real blocksize increase and no strings attached.
BU is not a superior alternative, but miners are going for it because they really want the blocksize increase.
At the end of the day, what miners really want is just bigger blocks.
(To entertain your idea, I have to overlook all these reasons as if they don't exist, I have to pretend nothing much has happened in the past year)
5.Bitmain's
suggestion is that instead of making a big deal out of ASICBoost, a win-win situation would be to talk to the patent owners so everyone can use ASICBoost together.
If everyone is using ASICBoost, then no one has an advantage over others, but everyone saves electricity. The keyword here is 'everyone'.
If you read Bitmain's announcement, the entire paragraph reads:
"Gregory Maxwells recent proposal suggests changing 2^32 collision to 2^64 collision to make ASICBOOST more difficult. The result of this would be a loss for the patent owners and the Bitcoin protocol. The patent owners will get nothing and Bitcoin protocol will become more complicated. The only beneficiary will be the technical bureaucrats who are engineering it. The more complicated the protocol is, the higher the cost and barrier to have multiple implementations become. We confirm that we support multiple implementations because they will bring more innovation and better security to the network, while threatening the monopolistic position of certain developers."
But here you only focus on "hurt their patent holders" and ignored the other part.
(So I don't understand why you kept trying to turn an idea that can benefit everyone, into an idea that only benefits Jihan himself, then use it for another argument.)
6.Let's say I am now exploring the idea that anything is possible in this universe, after all nobody can be certain what the miners were really thinking, unless they are the miners themselves.
So I ignore all the reasons above, I ignore everything Blockstream/Core have been doing, and play logic gymnastics to narrow down onto a single possibility, for example, your conclusion.
The problem then is, when I do that, I have to overlook so many things that I am accepting it only because nothing is impossible.
That means I also have to believe in infinite other fringe possibilities, including all the plausible as well as nut job conspiracies.
And this is what puzzled me with your conclusion, your conclusion requires such an extreme open mind to explore or accept, yet, you weren't offering it as a possibility, you were using your conclusion to attack other people's conclusions, conclusions that had more evidence and reasoning than yours.
For example when I offered the link that someone on twitter looked into recent blockchain activity and found no evidence of ASICBoost usage, that was just to indicate my conclusion had more supporting evidence than yours.
But you didn't take that evidence with an open mind, you went for insults, when your conclusion had even less evidence.
You were also dismissive to more probable possibilities, such as Jihan signed an agreement that would work against ASICBoost simply because he didn't care to use ASICBoost at all.
It seemed to me that you have already decided what the reality was, and you were on a mission to ignore all evidence and reason that would contradict your reality.
Ignoring all the trolling, it wasn't so much about 'proving something or someone wrong', but more about which conclusion has more evidence and reasoning behind it, it was more about not willing to narrow down on one fringe possibility, while ignoring more obvious and evidence supported possibilities.