I may not have as many coins as some people here for a very simple reason: "do not invest more than you can afford to loose". It is much easier to get richer if you are rich already. However, I do have a small stash, mostly mined long ago, in 2011-2013. I never had enough money to obtain a comparable amount after the 2017 bullrun. Buying was not an option.


Not preparing for down may have serious consequences, grave ones in the most extreme cases. Stress is not a joke...


They went quite good. I did not sell a single satoshi until $30k

Everyone (except, of course, that there is one buyer for every seller). It's freefall.

Interesting... End of January is a special time for me (not going to be more specific for security reasons) and Bitcoin has a habit of making a "present" for me: it crashes. It did so in 2018 and 2019 and it is doing it now. The situation looks very similar to 2018. So, despite all that talk about bullish news, moon, BTFD, etc. - how low will it go? What do you think? $25k? $20k? Below 20?

I plan to cash out about 10-15% of my stash for some serious purchases (the rest if for holding and it can wait until 2024-2025) and I have already sold some above $30k. Now I am sitting on the fence. $25k to $30k is still fine, $20k-$25k - not so fine, and I would not like selling below $20k at all. Returning to four figures seems to be unlikely, 200 WMA is approaching $8.5k and production cost seems to be above $10k...

That's what I meant when I said I was too slow - bitcoin moves faster that I post

Happy New Year! I was going to post that soon bitcoin can break $31k too, but I was too slow...

$27822 ATH on Bitstamp. Looks like page parity has been achieved

Right. Sequences of six green daily candles are not unusual at all, seven are rare, but eight are just extraordinary.

Yes. Steady, very close to linear. Which is, IMO, much better than exponential. Huge spikes are too often followed by huge crashes.

Right. I am not against difficulty increases (my mining days are long gone), but I can hardly imagine a tenfold increase of the current production cost. As I understand, the main constituents are electricity costs and equipment costs (the equipment quickly becomes obsolete and constantly needs to be replaced). The efficiency (hash per joule) continues to increase, so I doubt that the energy consumption can increase significantly. Faster and more efficient equipment is more expensive, but its cost needs to increase faster than difficulty to make the cost of production higher.

2x gain in a few years is still much better than few % a savings account can give. As I have said, I am bullish, but linearly, not exponentially . Unfortunately, my stash is not big enough to retire and live comfortably by spending from it only. Still, there is a slight chance that institutional adoption could drive the price another 10x. My thought is that it is not very likely.

Certainly it is an interesting technological invention, potentially capable of replacing gold (at least partially) as reserve and investment. A bit too late, although. Until 2017 I thought it would remain an insignificant curiosity, but since then I am sure it is going to stay for decades. But, it does not mean that bitcoin can make another 10x increase.


Breaking through anything below $20k is nothing new, we have seen it before. It is somewhat amusing that here "bearish" means "not expecting huge increase". I am bullish in the long run, the difference is that in my case "bullish" may mean average price doubling every four years (shorter term fluctuations are definitely going to be stronger).


I did not sell a single satoshi from my main stash, cold storage since late 2017. However, I do not expect 10x gains anymore.


There is one problem: mining. Satoshi Nakamoto (whoever he was) once said (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57.msg415#msg415) that "the price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost" and "in later years, when new coin generation is a small percentage of the existing supply, market price will dictate the cost of production more than the other way around". I agree. Later years are still very far away. Widespread institutional adoption may shift the balance, but without it the price will gravitate toward the mining cost, that is low tens of thousands, for years to come.

I think I know something, at least I have been watching it from time to time since 2011 (in autumn of 2011 I thought it was dead and 2013-2016 cryptowinter was too boring).


I am still not sure that $20k is irrelevant. There are big sell walls at $20k and so far they have been impenetrable. The resistance is very strong. I think there is still a possibility, although a slight one, that $20k will not be broken for a long time. Yes, we had a new ATH, but it is less that 2% higher than the old one from 2017.

While people here talk about $100k and above, I am not sure that we will see even $50k until 2024. Of course, in case of widespread institutional adoption it may be different.

Finally, new ATH, at least on Bitstamp (but, as I understand, not on all major exchanges) Great! I am glad that I was wrong when I thought there will be no new ATH until the next (2024) halving. Still below $20k though.

Maybe 10-15k. Anything higher is very unlikely, barring USD hyperinflation (which is also unlikely).

Actually there is a 3rd option, which seems to be more probable. Bitcoin will not go down to 0 and will not go up to $20k or higher. 4 digits for years to come. However, it may be possible to make a nice profit (but not 'filthy rich' level, of course).

500%-1000% from 1k? Entirely possible. 1000% from 2k (new ATH)? Unlikely. I am inclined to think that the all-time bitcoin bull market is over and we will see sideways trend for many years. Next (2024) halving may push the price up a bit, however.

Actually, it is about 48 months till the halvening that matters. However, the 2020 halvening may still cause a rally from, say, $4k to $8k (the numbers are wild guesses, it may be from $3k to $12k).

Exactly. Endless "last chance to buy under XXXX", "buy the dip", "new ATH soon" "$100k next year" since 2018, ad nauseam. When there was a poll about new ATH, I voted 2024 (because of the next halving), but now I think I might have been too optimistic...

Yes, again. I wonder how many times (or, possibly, how many years) we will see bitcoin crossing this line back and forth in the future...

I may be wrong (bitcoin is unpredictable), but I have a feeling that the whole game has changed. The long-term bull market which basically started with the creation of bitcoin is over. It does not mean that bitcoin is dead or will fall to some ridiculously low levels. Far from it. It means that there will be no more exponential rises. There will be 2x or 3x swings, but no more crazy 10x bull runs. Bitcoin will probably struggle to stay above $10k until the next halving (one in 2024) and there will be no new ATH until then. The upcoming 2020 halving has been priced in advance, during $3k to $14k rally last year. $100k is beyond any reasonable timeframe and may never happen.

Of course, this is just an opinion.