I like it. It's a lot more detailed than what most people on this forum are offering. I know just a bit of TA from my own studies, but most people here don't offer much more than what I already know.

The price went up pretty significantly during the months preceding the halving. Since everyone knew it was coming, it was already priced in by the time it happened.

Alcohol prices skyrocketed during prohibition, and alcohol quality decreased dramatically. The rest of those items got cheaper because of new technologies. As an example, do you think the war on file sharing made files free, or did the invention of file sharing itself make them free? Did porn get cheaper because of the internet or because governments frown upon porn? You are confusing inventions with interventions. The invention of the printing press is not the same as a war on literacy.

Do you really think that if Bitcoin exchanges were closed down, the price per coin would go up? I'm just asking a hypothetical question; I don't actually think that the exchanges will be closed down. Imagine if tomorrow, Mt. Gox announced that they were being shut down. People would be scrambling to sell their coins and get their dollars back in the bank.

If production of certain goods/services are restricted, supply will decrease and price will go up. If an artificial incentive is created to boost demand for a good/service, demand will increase and price will go up. If Bitcoin use is restricted, supply will stay the same and demand will decrease. That will cause the price to go down.

Anyway, the CFTC is only regulating financial instruments related to Bitcoin, not Bitcoin itself, so it's not a problem. I just wanted to demonstrate that the OP doesn't understand basic economics.

Because upon hearing that news, speculators drove the price up accordingly.

That's already priced in. If it goes to $150, that will not be the reason.

Not necessarily a dump, but possibly a long, slow slide.


This is essentially correct.


Eh, I still believe in Bitcoin in the long term, but I think it's over-hyped now.


A bit of an exaggeration on how much it oscillates, but yes, it was stressful enough to make me sell all of my coins recently.


Yep, I think the price will be a lot lower in 6 months.


It's possible, who knows.


The dump already happened. The next step to match 2011 is a long, slow slide (with some bouncing up and down) for the next 6 months.

Seems pretty similar to me so far. That's why I just recently sold everything, because I don't want to hold my coins through a long, slow slide like I did a couple of years ago. I have even surprised myself with my change in sentiment; it's the first time in about 2 years I have sold any coins. I'm going to continue monitoring things and my hunch is that in 6 months, price per coin will be a lot lower.

For tomorrow, I expect an upside breakout into the 130s, but I don't want to take a risk trading, so I'm not buying anything. However, I would not be surprised to see $60 in the next 2 weeks. This forecast is based on my own amateur TA.

Even though this attack is very likely fake, the real DDoSer can use the same time to execute a DDoS and cause a larger panic than has been typical lately because then people will think that it is the actual attack.

There is likely still tons of new money coming in, based on the huge queue for Mt. Gox. The new guys are probably hoping for the price to shoot back up again, and I think it will. People who got burned in the crash might be more wary. Personally I've been in the Bitcoin game for a while so this volatility doesn't bother me much.

I lost some money in 2011, then afterwards bought a lot of coins at $5. I still have all of those coins, and I just might just do something similar again if the price goes low enough.

In other news, the internet has been hacked.

What's the deal with the CoinLab transition? I thought that the transition was supposed to be complete by March 31, but we still haven't heard anything from them.

Is this the reason Mt. Gox decided to no longer deal with US customers?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Account_Tax_Compliance_Act

Also, how did storing funds abroad prevent larger investors from purchasing coins?

It might seem like everyone is jumping on the Bitcoin bandwagon right now, but that's simply not true. No one that I've talked to in real life even knew that Bitcoin existed before I mentioned it. No institutional investors are involved in Bitcoin yet. The real bubble will happen when the big investors start piling money into Bitcoin ventures, many of which will ultimately fail, but in the meantime, whoever is holding bitcoins will reap massive rewards. Of course, short-term corrections will happen along the way. But the big picture looks pretty good.

I have no idea on numbers, but I would think by 2022 the price will still be higher than $35. The 2022 price could still be high compared to now, but way below whatever the new all-time high will be between now and 2022.

Broader market conditions seem extremely favorable to Bitcoin at the moment. The Fed's ultra easy money policy will fuel another asset bubble, with artificially low interest rates allowing a lot of potential startups to borrow money for new business ventures. Institutional investors will see the overoptimistic growth predictions in these startups and look to pump money into them. Whoever is invested in these emerging markets will likely make a lot of money within the next 5 years. What will be the largest, most speculative, most credit-fueled emerging market? You guessed it: Bitcoin.

The catch is that in accordance with Austrian Business Cycle Theory, a lot of these new Bitcoin business that emerge will not properly reflect consumer preferences. The easy credit from the Fed will cause substantial malinvestment, and a lot of the new Bitcoin businesses will fail after the Bitcoin market inevitably crashes. I'm going to arbitrarily predict that the crash will occur near the end of the current decade. Chances are that the price of Bitcoin will crash too. But in the 2020s, after the junk is cleaned out, stable growth of the Bitcoin market will resume. The point is, to an optimist like myself, we are the "smart money" in the following chart:



Institutional investors have yet to participate in the market. In fact, almost no one even knows what Bitcoin is. So it's possible that there is a great deal of money to be made. Best of luck.

Is this the reason for the change in ownership?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Account_Tax_Compliance_Act

What advantage does Ziggap offer over services like BitInstant and Coinbase?

The same thing you can do with gold if the price of gold goes to 0.