Honestly, we just expect too much from a financial dude. I understand its his job to guess these things and stand behind them because he is not a regular citizen going to his job and checking bitcoin at the side but aren't we all changing our feeling towards bitcoin each day. I believed bitcoin shouldn't have gone to 20k at the time and sold all my coins thinking that can't be sustained but also bought Nano and some other coins thinking the bitcoin unsustainable prices would drop to other smaller coins, that didn't happen.
During the bear marketing following that I believed prices would soar once again soon when everyone takes their profits out, that didn't happen. I can tell you many times when my feeling towards the price changed but the results are the same, novogratz is a human, his feelings may change about the price too.