It appears the "trend" I pointed out in the OP has been broken. The price could still shoot downwards but if it does, it still wouldn't truly be following the previous dips. DanV has stuck with his predictions so far, but other traders on TradingView (Tim West, David Alcindor) seem to believe it is now more likely to go up than down. I suspect even DanV may adjust his previous predictions soon. Thoughts? Obviously I would be disappointed if it goes up before it does first, but I still feel alight about my decision and my plan. I may slightly adjust my plan and buy back in at $480 (as opposed to $500).

But I've wanted it to go up for months and all it went was down    It is weird to be in the reverse position.

Lol at your "Seinfeld trading pattern", good stuff.

Best move? I don't know, but obviously I'm hoping so.

I decided to open the thread after because I did not feel 100% about it. So far, reactions seem to be mixed. And I feel about the same about as I did when I started the thread. The small bump to $445 makes me feel 1) maybe I should have waited a little bit to sell and 2) maybe I should not have sold at all; these cancel each other out in my mind.

This is a very good question and one I struggle with. And my answer right now is "I'm not sure". I could see BTC at $200-$300 more easily than $2000-$3000... am I crazy for thinking this...?

Lol! This made me laugh, just the way you said what you said.

Why do you consider it "high" risk? Do you think $430 is/was the bottom?

Your math may be flawed. The price doesn't have to drop to 300 for him to break even.

For example, lets say he invested his 55k @ $550 (100 coins) with the hope of doubling his money. Easy if he holds; just wait unit the price hits $1100 and profit 55k.

However, he could sell now and take the 12k hit (ouch). And let's say he either gets impatient or he catches the bottom at $380. Doomed, right?

Well, not really. 43k @$380 nets him ~113 coins. If he sells at the same time as if he had held ($1100), he'll have 124k.

124 - 55 - 12 = 57k

If he "catches the knife" @ 300, then his profit will be 90k.



So whether or not it is a good idea to sell now depends on both when he buys back and when he sells. It is only riskier to sell now if you believe $430 is the bottom and your not willing to wait to sell when it does go back up (if he buys back in @ $400 for whatever reason he will have to wait all the way until $1150 instead of $1100 to "break even").

I'll assume you're speaking towards me. Not sure if you're insinuating I'm "SMART"? I never said I was smart, quite the contrary, I'm probably pretty dumb when it comes to investing/trading. And yes, what I did appears risky, but it doesn't seem that risky to me. You may have also missed the point where I plan to buy back in if it goes back up instead of down.


I'll keep this mind, thanks. After the market moves (either to ~$500 or ~$300) I think I will be done for a while. The last few months have been fun and interesting, but very time consuming and even stressful at times.

And I'm sure you were just born as the world's greatest investor... 

I have checked out Risto's and SlipperySlope's threads/analysis. Time will tell if they are right. I'd like to believe that their projections are correct, but in the short term it looks like the price is going down. Even Risto, in his periodic quick updates has accepted this; he went from reversal confirmed, to probably not quite yet confirmed, to not sure confirmed, to straight out stating (today) we are still in a downtrend. Based on his trendline we are at "historic" lows. And I see no sign that we'll be moving up any time soon.

Of course, on the flip side, if Risto (and I suppose yourself) are correct, then buying in at $300 or $500 makes very little difference. I've read the same articles as you have about all the infrastructure but it simply isn't reflected in the price (yet). I have a hard time envisioning 1 BTC equaling $10,000 in a year and a half. I'd like to get to the point where I can take my principal out but still maintain a decent position in BTC. So I am taking a gamble now to make/save a few bucks. If it pays off, I've increased my position in Bitcoin without risking more fiat (i.e. continuing to buy as it drops). If it doesn't pay off, Iv'e lost some fiat I have prepared to lose but will still be in the same BTC position. Basically, "I've made my move". Is it out of lack of patience? Naivety? Perhaps... perhaps not.

Bold:
I think this good advice. After the recent rise from $340 to over $540 I should have set up a plan, something like "If it drops back to the $460-480 range, the trend is not reversed and I should sell and wait for a lower entry point".  Perhaps I will set up a better plan than I have now. However, the probability (in my head) of the price going lower than $260 seems low.

Italics:
The worst (not really the worst...) part of selling at $430 is knowing that I wanted to sell earlier but didn't. Your sentence pretty much sums up me as "most people". Though I don't have a lot of coins (relative to most on this sub-forum) and that I haven't invested more than I can lose, sealing in a $1000+ loss was not fun. It certainty would have been easier to hold, but I'm hoping it will be more profitable to have sold.

Just following the current trend. And trust me, even in the last few motnhs, I know all about being surprised by BTC. I feel like I have bought and sold at terrible times; even now I don't feel great about my decision. The sad thing is I am trying to tell myself I sold because the data/chart is starring me right in the face (is it as hard to ignore as it is for me as it is for everyone else?), but I could have very well have sold because I was tired of just holding.

Still holding the TSLA, though I really haven't paid it much attention. I understand the "fundamentals" (investing language?) of Tesla and the technology quite well. Maybe if my gmable in BTC pays off I will heavily long-term invest in TSLA. I see Tesla being around a long time (note, I am very heavily biased towards Tesla).


Either you or someone else brought up DanV in another thread. Still getting my head around EW though I haven't spent a lot time researching it. Three hours is just so damn long; not exactly something I can view at work and not something I particularity want to view at home. However, at some point, I am sure I will catch some of it.

I hope it goes down to at least $340 (weird typing this out since I have been "full" BTC for a while), but I am not certain of anything, just making a bet. I feel (highly scientific... I know...) that at this moment it is much more likely to hit $380 than $500.


Thanks for the tip. I will probably determine when I buy by the rate at which it is dropping. Since I am a rookie I only use Coinbase. It hasn't been a bad experience, and I think it helps me from trading all the time.


It took me an embarrassingly amount of time to determine what CCMF stood for when first arriving at this forum. My first thought was "cheap coins", which made perfect sense to me except that it was almost always said when the price was going up.

Ok, so if the winky face didn't give it away... I haven't really given up... but hey, maybe it got you here.

Here is what I have done:

• Bought ~8 coins in the last few months, average cost of ~$570.
  
  
• I've now sold those at ~$430. So yes, I have cemented about a $1100 loss.

Here is what I will do:

• If it goes to $500, I will buy back my 8 coins.
  
  
• I will buy back in at $300 +/- $50; the goal being roughly 12 coins.

Cementing the loss sucks, sure, but I have a hard time believing this is going anywhere but down short term. Also, if it is not obvious by my average cost, I bought all these coins before the last dip to $340 and am currently at/over what I feel comfortable losing. Therefore, the common advice (at least given out on this forum) of "holding and buying more as we go down" is not an option for me.


More background, since this is my first post:

I am NOT a trader/investor at all. I have been trying to master the finance language the last few months, but I'm really just a mech. engineer who likes technology. I've lurked on here since February and have read everything on Bitcoin that I could find. I think Bitcoin (the technology) can be revolutionary (i.e. change the world). I think Bitcoin (the currency) can be a good investment (i.e. increase my wealth). That being said, I don't see the pointing in holding just for the sake of holding. The only other time I have invested it something similar to this, such as stocks, is when I bought Tesla stock when it first became public. I bought it for the same reasons I am buying (had bought) Bitcoin. However, at the time, I was a broke grad student and only managed to purchase a few shares.



My "TA" (in this case TA = trend analysis):

http://s29.postimg.org/ys1otdrw7/btctrend5514.png

Nothing new here, it just seems obvious to me that we are heading for another dip. The "dips" are decreasing in size/length, but a dip nonetheless seems destined.