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Showing 20 of 20 results by BelCanto
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Re: Trading Concepts: Moving Average
by
BelCanto
on 26/01/2018, 23:02:23 UTC
Moving averages are mostly only used by amateurs these days.  As has been mentioned they take the average closing price of an asset over a set period of sessions and that's the value.

The problem with this is that close prices for various sessions aren't always useful.   VWAP or Volume weighted average price is a much more useful tool because value in a market is dictated by volume.   Rejection of heaviest volume is a more powerful signal than rejection of the average closing price of whatever session you're looking at. 
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Re: YOUR TRADING STRATEGY
by
BelCanto
on 15/11/2017, 04:09:42 UTC
Depends, really. 

For the fund I implemented a market neutral strategy we built.  It's entirely autonomous and dynamic utilizing a computer learning library. 

I also make a few discretionary trades on the side for my friends for fun.  No AI, just what I used to do as an oil trader back in the day.  For that it's all order flow.   Tape never lies. 

I don't like candlesticks, I don't look at MA's or oscillators, and I can never get two people who use fibs to agree on levels so I don't use those either. 

Just orderflow.  Once you get used to it, that's all you'll need.
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Re: BUY high sell low ?
by
BelCanto
on 13/11/2017, 22:08:58 UTC
Emotions emotions emotions! Impossible to get rid of them... maximum you can do is to learn to control them. Sometime I make the same mistake even though i'm not a novice trader. But i'm still working on myself Cheesy



Well said!   How long have you been trading, and have you traded anything other than crypto?
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Re: Stop-Loss ideas
by
BelCanto
on 13/11/2017, 21:59:45 UTC
One of the keys to trading is risk management and to do that you need to first define your risk which is done by using stop losses. 

As for how to do it, well, the idea is simple enough.  You place the stop at a price where your trade is in failure, as for how to know what that pointiis that's up to you and the system you employ.   

The other thing to consider with stop losses is that you need to manage them (or not) while you're in the trade. So if you're long bitcoin @ 5200 and it bumps to 6800, you may want to move your stop in to protect your profit . .  or take some profits off the table and let it run. . . or both.

There's a stop strategy out there I found useful in *some* trending markets called the chandelier stop. 

Here's an article on it:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:chandelier_exit

Enjoy!

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Re: Minimum coin to begin trading?
by
BelCanto
on 12/11/2017, 16:33:56 UTC

My thought is to play with 3-5 coin a day for easier to monitor, I think if I start in about $100-$200 will be a bit useless if the coin i play have a high value (even it dump). If I play with cheap coins, when the price movement is low, it makes no difference.



How do you figure? One of the great things about spot crypto trading is that bitcoin is divisible down to 0.00000001 BTC, so it almost doesn't matter where a full coin is trading.   Let's assume you're trading on bittrex which has a 50k satoshi limit for smallest position size.   At current rates that's about $3.  Even with a $500 stop loss you're only risking about $.30  

As for low price movement, yeah compared to BTC, XRP (for example) isn't exactly tearing up the charts but to go from $.20 to $.22 is still a 10% move.  Also, you can still make money in range-bound markets  it's just a different strategy that may (or may not) suit you.

As always, YMMV.  
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Re: Minimum coin to begin trading?
by
BelCanto
on 12/11/2017, 07:14:57 UTC
Well, what I meant by "what do you want to accomplish?"  was more like your trading goals in terms of money if you have them. 

For example if you're new and have 1 satoshi but huge dreams of turning that into an empire it's a different conversation than if you have a little cash but lots of experience. 

You can start with a very small amount and if you're new I suggest starting with the minimum allowed by the exchange you're on. 

Do you have a strategy yet?
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Re: Minimum coin to begin trading?
by
BelCanto
on 12/11/2017, 06:32:05 UTC
Well, how much experience do you have and what do you want to accomplish? 

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Re: Would you download an trading tool that is google chrome extension?
by
BelCanto
on 12/11/2017, 06:13:19 UTC
Most trading tools are worthless to begin with. 

A trading tool that's a google extension seems even more so. 

What is this tool supposed to do for you?
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Re: Financial Crisis and Safe Havens
by
BelCanto
on 12/11/2017, 06:05:06 UTC
Before I say anything I'd like to point out that you're in college so you've got time on your side. . . which is to say if you blow it up you have plenty of time to make it back.   Also, kudos on having 500-1k per month to invest.  Most college kids I meet can't even afford a burrito at the end of the month.

Onto your questions:

Before I start, this is not investment advice and should not be construed as such.  Any purchases you make are on you as are any profits or losses.  

Gold is a good asset but you have to be careful purchasing it.  Physical metals are unregulated and often sell for ridiculous premiums (read 50%+).  The worst I know is a site that marks up their metals 400% and through some shifty marketing gets away with it.  If you go physica0,l stick to bullion and don't pay more than 3% over spot.  If you're in the US and need help with this let me know.  If you're outside the US just remember,  no more than 3% over spot.  Ever.

Real estate-  yeah, that's a tough one.  Aside from the necessary capital you'll need to know what to look for and where.  I know people in real estate and it's a heckuva learning curve from what I've seen.

Equities- well an old school trader one said to me "The stock market was designed to create wealth and the forex market was designed to take it back"  Obviously I mention this for the first part.  Having the right stocks is essential.   If you know how to pick stocks, cool.  If not, I'd ask for help.

Crypto-  not sure I'd call it a safe haven asset yet, although it has a similar function to gold and is easier to use when transacting business than the barbarous relic. I love crypto, but I still don't recommend anyone put in any amount they don't want to lose.   It's probably the highest risk of everything on your list.  That being said, it's your money so it's your decision.

Regardless of what you do I'd stress test the portfolio. (EDIT: If you need help with this too, I can probably run one for you)

Let me know if I can be of further assistance.  

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Re: How do you Panic?
by
BelCanto
on 12/11/2017, 04:27:03 UTC
There's this idea in trading that you have to be an emotional rock -- Shut out your emotions and just think.   I've found that to be almost as frustrating and destructive as the losing trades.

Of course panicking doesn't help either, so since you asked:

I actually hired a trading psychologist years ago to help me through this  Seriously.  Through him I was able to understand the genesis of my emotional responses which helped me deal with them better.  Needless to say, this has helped me out in life tremendously. 

We can't will our emotions away, but we can understand why we feel them.  That + a good trading plan + understanding of markets tends to lead to a cooler head even in the face of losing trades and periods of drawdown.   
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Re: Gaining trust as a beginner
by
BelCanto
on 12/11/2017, 04:20:31 UTC
The last person who told me he was trustworthy was a car salesman.

I didn't buy the car.  Know why?   

If you have to tell me you're trustworthy you're probably not. 
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Re: when do you buy ?
by
BelCanto
on 12/11/2017, 03:55:17 UTC
I see a lot of people talking about when to sell; but I think that buying is as important if not more (obviously you buy* low -_-). so do you guys aim to buy the lowest low of the day/week/month/... and do you think that is riskier and/or hard to predict. do you wait for price reversals? do you follow expert advice?? please share your thoughts and your stories (successful or otherwise Smiley)

While I know why you think entries are more important they're really not.  Trading is about minimizing risk and properly managing trades which you can do at any entry point.  Obviously buying at the lowest point is prime but you're more likely to win the lotto than to do that on any regular basis, and since your profits or losses are realized at exit, it's possible to buy at the lowest point and get taken out for a small fraction of your potential profits on a retrace with bad trade management or set a stop too close and get taken out for a loss before it runs. 

That being said, In regards to my discretionary trading, yes I still have to enter before I exit so to answer your question I suppose I wait for reversals since that's usually where I find value.   That being said, sometimes markets just chop, build up steam, and pop so really what I'm looking at is orderflow. . . and no, I don't listen to experts.   Most of the experts I find breaking down crypto markets are using outdated tools I don't trust (moving averages, bands, oscillators, etc).

 

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Re: Stop Loss Strategy
by
BelCanto
on 12/11/2017, 03:43:16 UTC
Are you asking as a general rule moving forward or about the charts as they exist right now?
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Re: What is your trading strategy?
by
BelCanto
on 12/11/2017, 03:23:20 UTC
I have two. 

My main trading for my firm is a market neutral black box system that utilizes computer learning to reassess market conditions and rebalance our portfolio quickly to achieve maximum profits.

On the side I do some discretionary trading for friends.  For that it's all about orderflow.
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Re: BUY high sell low ?
by
BelCanto
on 12/11/2017, 02:54:18 UTC

Indeed, it's only smartasses looking at the chart afterwards who will say "you should have bought low".


Interestingly enough those smart asses almost never seem to be successful.  Hm. . .
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Re: Day trade or Hodling
by
BelCanto
on 12/11/2017, 02:47:30 UTC
Day trading is much better for me, because through day trading, you can gain profits. Even small profits, it's important. You entered in trading because to gain profits not losses.



If you don't day trade, then when do you guys make profits?  For example do you have a goal on how much you want to make per coin?  Say you buy 1000 shares of say lisk at 5 dollars each.  Is your goal something like when it hits 15 dollars and you 3x your money... you cash out?
[...]


The thing is are there people that daytrade and say do this for 1 year and when they factor in everything, they could make say 3k a month etc on this?  
[...]


Because if you are holding, how long are you holding for?  I mean if you are holding your coins where if you cash them all out, and you have 1 million dollars, that would be great.  But who knows how long that would take.  What about your expenses etc?  


Also im curious but how much money would you say most of you people need where you don't have to work anymore?  Would 1 million be enough?  Would 3 million be enough?  Would 5 be enough?   

Sorry for the edits, but I wanted to cut right to the heart of what you're asking because I think you're asking great questions that deserve answers.

1. You can make profits (or losses) on any time frame in any market.  How do you know which one is best for you?  Follow your nose, see what makes sense, grow those ideas.  It takes times, patience, and an ability to control emotions.  But at the end of the day "persistence is omnipotent"

As for when,  all profits and losses are realized on exit, so if you remember nothing else know that your exists/risk management are actually more important than your entrances.  Yes,  if you buy on the high you're screwed but you're not as screwed if you have a tight stop loss and you're playing a potential breakout with an SAR that has an equally tight stop should the breakout fail as opposed to buying at the high and having a wide stop because you think it'll keep you from getting stopped out.  Make sense?

As for where to put your exit, a lot of people use present ratios.  Personally, I think that's shortsighted because the reality is that your exits should be based on market conditions, not a predetermined and often arbitrary number or, even worse, a wish.  If market conditions support a realistic bump of $50, take the $50 in market movement because you'd be a fool to expect it to run.  If market conditions support a run of $500 let it ride and monitor it because you'd be a fool to get out early.   Knowing the difference takes time and practice. 

2.  After a year of day trading how much could people make?  3/k month?  Sure  it's possible,  so is 30k/month,  so is -30k/month.  For me, I think if you're trading to make 100k/year you're in the wrong business.   You can work less stressful jobs that pay you more,  but YMMV

3. How long do you hold?   GREAT QUESTION  as mentioned exits are paramount so if you're entering a position without an exit strategy you're probably shooting yourself in the foot.  When manually trading (which I do sometimes these days for friends) I get out when I see weakness and get back in when I see value.  It has nothing to do with price or time.  The markets don't care that I want to hold for five days or that I want it to go to $XXXX.  I respond to what the market is telling me.
 
4. How much money do we need?   On that I defer to the Wallis Simpson, Duchess of Windsor. . . "You can never bee too rich or too thin."

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Re: How do you decide when it's time to sell?
by
BelCanto
on 12/11/2017, 02:22:24 UTC
Nobody wants to be monitoring the prices all day with the cursor on the sell button just waiting to click the mouse, so how do you decide when to sell?

If you set up an open order with a low target price, you'll be disappointed when the price climbs well above your target price.
If you set up an open order with too high a price, you might not sell at all.

What's your strategy?

Depends on a lot of things that all boil down to one thing:  market conditions

I'll tell you, when I started I knew the key to being successful was to be flexible, but all the material I found said "Take no less than 2x risk and sometimes 3x or more depending upon the trade"   I found a ton of different methods to define "sometimes" and "depending" and eventually, with no other options I gave in and found myself asking the same questions you are.  Sometimes my trades would reverse right before my take profit point.  Sometimes I'd take 2x profits and see it run 5x or more. . and did I ever need that money to mitigate previous losses!   It was infuriating, and the none day I found myself back at the beginning learning to be flexible.

First, if you haven't accepted that you'll almost never buy on the lowest tick of a move and sell on the highest please do that now.  It's all about taking your profits out of the middle.  Getting better causes your middle to get wider. . . or something.

Second, I learned to lean on my experience and to know what type of market conditions I'm dealing with.  If I'm in a choppy market the distance between value and weakness will be smaller. 

Third (and most specifically), I found truth in volume.  This is a discussion that can take up many books but to boil it waaaaay down think of it like looking at a TrueCar report.  They show you a distribution of cars sold   1x @ 32,000   5x @ 35,000  1x @ 37,000 and we're helping you get it at $32,500!  Right?   That's value, and you can tell because almost no one is paying that little.  Weakness is on the other side.   No one, except for one schmuck with bad credit and no negotiating skills paid $37,000 because the price is too high.  The market can't support it.

Most recently bitcoin almost hit 8k,  but when it got there volume dried up and sellers came in hot and heavy.  The market couldn't support it, and the price dropped quickly.

So that's how I do/did it.  It takes time to learn how, but once you do you'll see it all markets.
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Re: job and trading together..
by
BelCanto
on 12/11/2017, 01:57:27 UTC
I'm going to give you the same advice a now very famous trader and hedge fund manager gave me when I first started, "Follow your nose"

He was right.  Not every trading system will be profitable for every trader.   Some people's personalities make them predisposed to to scalping.  Others like being in a position for 20min-a couple hours. Some people prefer longer-terms trades.  Me?  My team and I developed several profitable crypto trading strategies and even though they're all autonomous with computer learning, I chose the market neutral strategy because it makes the most sense to me and I'm the one who has to deal with it so I'd rather remain mentally comfortable so I can continue to work the way I work best.

If I'm reading this correctly and you have a job your best bet is to start by reading, but not just anything because your time is the most valuable.  Despite the fact that professional level tools don't really exist yet on any exchange I found, I'd suggest you start with "Mind Over Markets"  At the very least you'll have a  better understanding of how markets function than most people you'll be trading with/against.  Then I'd move on to "Markets in Profile"  Somewhere in there I'd get a demo account for futures so you can see it play out in front of you (yeah I know you're looking to trade crypto, but the lessons you'll learn will stick with you forever)

As you gain more understanding of what moves markets and why you can begin to figure out what types of tools will work best for you and if you're a short, medium, or long term trader.

Start by paper trading to see what works for you and what doesn't but don't stay there too long (unless you're losing money).  The emotional load is totally different when you have skin in the game.  

When you go with real money,  go small.   My first real money trade in my life was an FX microlot years ago.   ONE MICROLOT and I needed new pants by the time I cashed out for enough to buy a celebratory beer.  

Ask questions of people you trust, but still prove everything to yourself.  

Understand what you're doing and why you're doing it.  If you don't, your lack of understanding will turn into fear and that will destroy you and your wallet from the inside.

Stay disciplined.

Play to your strengths.

And for the love of god always remember that this business isn't about being right, it's about making money.

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Re: Wash Trading
by
BelCanto
on 12/11/2017, 01:23:27 UTC
Wash trading is an activity where same stocks are bought and sold simultaneously by the investor showing artificial trade activity leading to price manipulation.It is said that Bithumb,a korean exchange is said to allow wash trading where BCH is most highly traded.It is said that it is the main reason for BCH price getting pumped this much high.Has bitcoin community faced a similar situation in which wash trading was carried out on some exchanges?

I heard of the concept of wash trading before, but in the context of money laundering... didn't know you could manipulate prices with it as well. I guess that such activity wouldn't be too hard to spot though as all the exchanges print the time and sales data. So if somebody does a wash trade, you'd see two trades of identical volume but in different directions.  I guess that would be one thing to look out for before you buy!

Potentially. They could also use randomly generated order sizes to absorb various chunks of the book through a variety of accounts then let it go bid (or ask) and start again.  There are a lot of different ways to disguise activity and anyone who wants to jump in has to be aware of how markets (and those creating markets) operate and manage risk appropriately.



 
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Re: BUY high sell low ?
by
BelCanto
on 12/11/2017, 01:00:50 UTC
I've always found "Buy low and sell high" to be one of the most infuriating axioms in trading (up there with "control your emotions"), and not because it's not true.  It's because it's vague. 

Well all know what it means to buy low, but "low" is subjective,  and we all know that we want to sell for a profit,  but for how much profit?  A couple ticks up in a profit, but then again so is a couple hundred ticks.  I can't tell you how many times in my early trading days I froze up on buying a dip because "What if it keeps going?  What if I'm wrong?"  or I convinced myself I could get a better entry and I knew better than the markets did.  On the flipside, I can't tell you how many times I saw the market get close to my take profit point only to see it reverse and either take me out for less than I could have had if I were being flexible and alert or, in some cases, for a loss. 

The worst part of this axiom, though, is that it's so simple it's easy to convince ourselves we get it which can be even more dangerous.

Personally, I describe it to new traders as "Buy value, sell weakness" 

It still makes sense to most people but it requires questions like "how do I spot value and weakness?" before it can be implemented, and that is when the real learning can start.