If someone is desperate to sell it to you for bitcoin, it is probably real. Gold isn't doing too well at the moment.

If they don't care too much, it's probably fake.

We're not ready for mainstream yet, but agree, this bubble is far from over.

I don't think China is leading the price any more. Just buy when you are comfortable. Choose a price a bit below the current price that you are comfortable with, then place a bid just below that, and wait. Short timescales in bitcoin are just random noise, ignore them.

I agree with most of your post, but I think we are well into the early adopter phase, if not through it already -- actually this timing is what worries me the most.

To be honest, people have been tearing their hair out for days trying to decide which way the market would go. People spent lots of coins painting that double top picture, but other big holders were fighting back. Remember that with all downturns, the real intentions of the big holders who dump on the way down is to accumulate. However, now there are so many holders that it was harder for these bears to drive the price as low as they liked, and so you could clearly see sentiment turning. A couple of stronger than expected rebounds was enough to prove that the markets still have legs, so bears got back in before it was too late. If they haven't lost all their coins, they will try again later at a big profit-taking dip.

alt-coins may be valuable in the future, but do your own due diligence, buy something that no-one is talking about and accept it as a sunk cost.

Every time you hear about how XXX is being pumped, or how much YYY has risen, never buy -- you're playing in their playground. I'd view any such news as an opportunity to sell.

yeah, meanwhile everyone else has decided $800 is the floor. Trading is a losing game at this point unfortunately.

$2200 by Christmas!

One thing is for sure: These sideways markets really fuck with your mind.

When I see Y5300 in China and shit myself when it goes down to Y4900, I try to remember that it is the same as $53 to $49

That chart is misleading. Their high was more like 7,000.

We could go up to somewhere above $1000, but I don't see this as a high potential upside right now. Bitcoin is a risky investment, and at this point in time I don't see the rewards being consummate with the risk. There's a real risk we're on the verge of mass hysteria and subsequent bag-holding. Another bubble could be a long time in the coming if so.

Fine to hold, but eventually holders will become impatient and want to increase their stash. They do this by dumping.

Might make sense to buy a little all the way down, but it's less risky to wait for the bottom to be in and buy on the next upswing -- it will probably be cheaper.

Christmas isn't traditionally a strong buying season, so the bottom may come early next year sometime.

Of course, I could be totally wrong. But to me this is as much about managing risk as going balls-in.

Sure, $3000 then $50. Most will cash out at the latter.

Or should we paint an alternative picture?

Remember, the pictures are painted by the big holders, not (only) the new money coming in.

The vast majority of our friends (not techies or by any means "early adopters") were not interested in investing at $60, they were bored of us and our Bitcoin rambling.

Now that we're at $800 and Bitcoin is in the media, they are desperate to buy. If they all do, we will shoot up to $2000 or $3000 -- I absolutely agree with the bulls. However, be careful what you wish for. We may well crash in a blaze of glory, and most will be burned. TBH I have much higher hopes for bitcoin. Something that appreciates more sensibly  year-on-year is much more valuable to all of us. $3000+ by the end of next year, for example would be very exciting. $500 and restrictive BTC regulation in China -- not so much.

On one hand, I agree with you long-term. On the other, they are dead right. You only have to browse these forums on the vertical rise days and see the mania. The rise is driven 100% by speculation in China, and will fall hard if it continues -- only a matter of time. Damping the flames and triggering a recession now is absolutely the smart thing to do. I say this in the best interest of our future wealth -- a meltdown and ensuing over-reactionary regulation is not what we want.

Put it this way: We are considering adding a big red popup on our website stating that we do not advise people to buy BTC, for our own safety.

This is just wishful thinking. The only thing the leaders care about is stability and maintaining power. They absolutely do not want to see anything that could threaten this.

Exactly that.

There have been several reports on the radio and TV about the "bitcoin phenomenon", they have been quite widespread. The messaging is that bitcoin is extremely volatile and risky, and they do not advise investors to enter.

Obviously they are most concerned about this escalating into a gold rush and causing destabilisation.

Not terribly negative, but it should help to make the market more rational.

I think the somewhat negative CCTV coverage is having an effect in China.

There is some extremely irrational investing advice in this forum, be careful.

Bitcoin has a very high potential upside. This galvanises people and turns us all into dreamers. We see people getting rich and want it too. A very high potential upside.

However it is also insanely risky. There is no law that states that Bitcoin will keep going up. In fact, it will go in the direction that will benefit the people who are already rich the most. If price outstrips adoption, price rises will not be exponential for a while.

Now, for most people, it is wise to take on high-risk investments. When you put the money in you accept it as lost, a sunk cost. If you are lucky, that pays off handsomely. It's a great idea. But the key is, you have to write off that initial investment.

For you, it is not -- the money was not yours, and you can't afford to lose it. You're in no position to write it off -- it was theft. You certainly can't take those decisions on behalf of others. In fact, your college is much more important, and many other opportunities will come in life.

You must also understand that easy riches is not the opportunity here. In life there are far more important opportunities that will make you into a person you can be proud of.

At this stage, if you are staying in due to potential greed, I'd advise you to liquidate some of your principal soon, and eventually keep only the BTC with which you could buy with profit. This will be very painful, especially when you see it go up, but it is wise to be careful when everyone else around you is greedy. Seeing all the responses here, I think you can judge for yourself, regardless of your age. These people who are so eager to see you buy now, will sell when the shit hits the fan. And they'll do it before you.