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Potential running flat pattern (very bullish) similar to 2017: 100k+ very likely
Hi folks,
Current price (35k) is potentially C on the above picture.
Now check early 2017, this pattern happened:
And the big picture of current price:
Not a financial advice but this pattern happens quite often in cryptocurrencies. Best of luck all
Current price (35k) is potentially C on the above picture.
Now check early 2017, this pattern happened:
And the big picture of current price:
Not a financial advice but this pattern happens quite often in cryptocurrencies. Best of luck all
Re: Why I am confident Bitcoin price will still rise A LOT before the next big crash
It's really interesting that the indicator showed a peak around 60k, the lines crossed, then we have a pretty heavy dump to 47k, but now the lines are distinct again 
In 2013 and 2017 the orange line really crossed above and never looked back, but here the green line is now above again, I quickly looked at the history of this tool and I don't think this happened in the past! Very interesting. Also interesting that the author of this tool himself said on Twitter he doesn't believe we have seen the peak yet.
I am personally monitoring another indicator called the 2-year MA multiplier.
Everytime we cross above the red line, which is the 2-year moving average X 5 (green line is 2-year MA), we see a very sharp move to the upside, right now the red line is around 82k.
Just look:
In 2017 Bitcoin did almost X3 after it crossed the red line. Maybe this time only X2, who knows but I am confident we are still far from the cycle top.
In 2013 and 2017 the orange line really crossed above and never looked back, but here the green line is now above again, I quickly looked at the history of this tool and I don't think this happened in the past! Very interesting. Also interesting that the author of this tool himself said on Twitter he doesn't believe we have seen the peak yet.
I am personally monitoring another indicator called the 2-year MA multiplier.
Everytime we cross above the red line, which is the 2-year moving average X 5 (green line is 2-year MA), we see a very sharp move to the upside, right now the red line is around 82k.
Just look:
In 2017 Bitcoin did almost X3 after it crossed the red line. Maybe this time only X2, who knows but I am confident we are still far from the cycle top.
Re: Why I am confident Bitcoin price will still rise A LOT before the next big crash
Could you make a prediction on what price the lines will crossed? So we can take a hint on what price it will be as new ATH (if it reached and history repeat)
Sure, I will update!
Good to see you active Bossian, hope you’re well. I much prefer to see a bullish Bossian 
What kind of price range do you predict for the top of this cycle? The top coming in 2-3 months would be great. I can definitely live with that
Good to see you What kind of price range do you predict for the top of this cycle? The top coming in 2-3 months would be great. I can definitely live with that
no idea to be honest, but looking at previous bubble, probably 150k-200k. As usual, not financial advice only my opinion!
Why I am confident Bitcoin price will still rise A LOT before the next big crash
Pi cycle top indicator has predicted the previous tops with good accuracy. April 2013 was a bit messed up but December 2013 and December 2017 looked crazy accurate. https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/
Orange line is 111 day moving average (111DMA), green line is a multiple of 350 day moving average (350DMA x 2).
When both lines crossed in the past, it showed we reached the top or close to it.
Look where we are in March 2021 both lines look close, but let's zoom in
Both lines are still quite far from crossing, I find it very interesting to compare with September - December 2017:
You can see both lines were getting close in that period but this is the moment Bitcoin skyrocketted. Also be very careful, this is when it's time to sell, or at least do not buy when this happens. If we follow the same patterns as 2017 we are 2 or 3 months away from the top of the bubble.
This indicator is also available on TradingView.
Orange line is 111 day moving average (111DMA), green line is a multiple of 350 day moving average (350DMA x 2).
When both lines crossed in the past, it showed we reached the top or close to it.
Look where we are in March 2021
both lines look close, but let's zoom in Both lines are still quite far from crossing, I find it very interesting to compare with September - December 2017:
You can see both lines were getting close in that period but this is the moment Bitcoin skyrocketted. Also be very careful, this is when it's time to sell, or at least do not buy when this happens. If we follow the same patterns as 2017 we are 2 or 3 months away from the top of the bubble.
This indicator is also available on TradingView.
1 year anniversary has officially passed, for those who wonder what happened exactly, this could very well be the reason of all that crap: https://www.offshorecorptalk.com/threads/epayments-may-have-a-hidden-agenda-be-warned.27167/
Epayments who got in trouble with the FCA may have used collected personal documents for money laundering purpose. Read this: https://www.offshorecorptalk.com/threads/epayments-may-have-a-hidden-agenda-be-warned.27167/
Thread was started just a few months ago before Epayments froze everyone's account due to license being removed. Be careful.
Thread was started just a few months ago before Epayments froze everyone's account due to license being removed. Be careful.
Next target 40-42k area before new ATH? See 2 year moving average
Green line is 2 year moving average, red line is 2 year moving average x 5.
This pattern is very interesting if we compare it to 2017 bull run, it would mean right now we could be in July-September 2017 repeat, meaning huge move on the upside in the next few months?
Also, this chart is very interesting because it indicates once we overtake the red line, the rise in price is very sudden and very sharp and a big crash follows after that. And bear in mind that those 2 lines always go up so the red line could very well be around 80k once we go above it. So, 150k-200k looks very achievable but then a big dump is likely.
Re: Advcash | a new "anonymous" bitcoin debit card [EUR & USD]
I apologize, but what is the point of verifying when this service isn't even live yet? Why are people even eager to do that?
May I ask whay is the planned timeline for UnionPay card release and in what denomination will it be?
Virtual and physical card work fine even though a lot of merchants block transactions (Transferwise or Ibanwallet to name a few).May I ask whay is the planned timeline for UnionPay card release and in what denomination will it be?
⭐ Merited by philipma1957 (1)
Still nothing happening.
This situation is terrible. I wanted to buy some crypto with my money stuck there, thought it would be released by June or July but how wrong I was. Now I am not even sure customers will have access to their funds next year, if at all.
Wrote to the FCA, and also to https://www.financial-ombudsman.org.uk/ to no avail so far.
This situation is terrible. I wanted to buy some crypto with my money stuck there, thought it would be released by June or July but how wrong I was. Now I am not even sure customers will have access to their funds next year, if at all.
Wrote to the FCA, and also to https://www.financial-ombudsman.org.uk/ to no avail so far.
Re: Advcash | a new "anonymous" bitcoin debit card [EUR & USD]
i like understand how i can verify my account to advcash. i have send my document ( italian ID) and don't approve.
i have open a chat and operator Artyom_D. write me "we don't accept italian id". You accept EU member and don't accept EU id for KYC?
at the request of the virtual card I have been deducted 7.99 euros, the card has not been issued and the money has not been refunded. I asked to get the money back, since you don't accept Italian documents and I was told that to get the money back I have to verify the account first. how do i verify it if not do you accept italian documents? couldn't you tell me before depositing?
A passport is a good investment, does not cost much I think and it is always necessary, not only for crypto related stuff i have open a chat and operator Artyom_D. write me "we don't accept italian id". You accept EU member and don't accept EU id for KYC?
at the request of the virtual card I have been deducted 7.99 euros, the card has not been issued and the money has not been refunded. I asked to get the money back, since you don't accept Italian documents and I was told that to get the money back I have to verify the account first. how do i verify it if not do you accept italian documents? couldn't you tell me before depositing?
Original article that I got from my brother in PDF version.
Language is in French, this is a quick automatic translation. Very interesting content!
The different stages of the escape from money: the worst is yet to come
The monetization of public debts will lead to a huge increase (about 70%) in the money supply by central banks (in the monetary base).
Such strong monetary creation will lead to mistrust of economic agents towards the quality and value of money, and will therefore lead to “escape” from money. What are the different stages?
If a single country were to conduct a very expansionary monetary policy, the residents of that country would sell that country's currency (currency) and buy other currencies; there would be a sharp depreciation of the exchange rate and high inflation in this country; But all the OECD countries are conducting this very expansionary monetary policy: there is therefore no switch from one currency to another and, moreover, the exchange rates are very stable between the OECD countries in the recent period;
The first step in the escape from money is then a escape from money to the investment of assets: savers-investors try to get rid of the money and buy other assets (stocks, real estate, gold, etc.). There are therefore bubbles everywhere in asset prices; this is already the case since the subprime crisis and will worsen after the Covid crisis;
This settles the question of money as an investment, but not the question of transaction money. The feeling that the currency is losing value will lead economic agents to look for a transaction currency other than the devalued official currencies; this certainly opens the door to the development of private currencies (various crypto-currencies) provided they are well managed, that is to say that the supply of these currencies does not increase excessively;
It is finally only if the reflex of mistrust towards the currency led, to "get rid of the currency" to purchases of goods and services and not to purchases of assets that there would be inflation prices of goods and services. At the moment, this is not being observed.
The violently expansionary monetary policy carried out in OECD countries will therefore first lead to generalized asset price bubbles; in a second stage, there could be an explosion of the International Monetary System with the rejection of public currencies.
Escape from the currency
The central banks of the OECD countries have embarked on a policy of massive monetization of fiscal deficits put in place in 2020, in order to avoid rising long-term interest rates and a public debt crisis.
This will result in considerable money creation: we believe that the central bank's money supply, the monetary base, will increase by 70% during the year 2020.
This enormous monetary creation will lead to a loss of confidence in the currency, to a distrust of private economic agents towards the value of the currency, and to “run away” from the currency: economic agents try to get rid of currency by purchasing more secure goods or assets.
A note: all OECD countries have the same policy. If only one OECD country were to conduct this very expansionary monetary policy, the holders of that country's currency would sell it to buy other OECD currencies; the currency of this country would depreciate sharply and there would therefore appear high inflation. This is what we see today, for example, in Argentina.
But all the OECD countries are pursuing the same very expansionary monetary policy: there is therefore no reason to switch from one OECD currency to another, and moreover the exchange rates between these currencies are very stable in recent times.
The escape from money could take the form of purchases of goods and services, with each economic agent trying to "get rid" of money by purchasing goods and services. There would then be inflation (of the prices of goods and services), but this does not happen as shown by the lack of correlation between the central bank money supply (the monetary base) and prices.
Asset price inflation
What we are seeing today is the portfolio rebalancing mechanism. Economic agents try to get rid of the excess money they hold by buying financial assets (stocks, bonds, gold, etc.) or real estate. At equilibrium, the currency created by central banks is obviously always the same, but the increase in demand for financial and real estate assets leads to an increase in the prices of these assets, which we have already seen from 2002 to 2008 then after the subprime crisis and what will be even more violent after the Covid crisis.
Since the start of the coronavirus crisis, we have seen the start of the rise in the price of gold.
The first effect of excess money creation and the flight from money is therefore to cause asset price bubbles to appear.
The question of transaction currency
The above therefore corresponds to the role of money as an investment: excess monetary creation leads savers to carry over from money to other financial and real estate assets, hence the bubbles in the prices of these assets.
But what about money as transaction currency?
Economic agents also keep money to finance their spending, and if they lose confidence in the value of money they will try to use currencies other than official state currencies as transaction currency.
This could give an increasing role to private currencies (for example cryptocurrencies) if they are well managed, that is to say if the supply of these currencies does not increase excessively.
This phenomenon has not yet been triggered by the coronavirus crisis, as the evolution of cryptocurrency prices shows (reminder: this article is from May 2020).
Conclusion: two stages in the escape from money
The excess monetary creation by central banks leads to loss of confidence in money, and therefore to run away from money. This has two stages:
1/ The escape from investment money, already present for 10 years, and leading to asset price bubbles;
2/ The escape from transaction currency, not yet present, which can lead to inflation (in the prices of goods and services) if there are massive purchases of goods and services, but also to the replacement of the official public currencies of States by private currencies.
Let's see what's going on in 2021.
Feel free to discuss respectfully
Language is in French, this is a quick automatic translation. Very interesting content!
The different stages of the escape from money: the worst is yet to come
The monetization of public debts will lead to a huge increase (about 70%) in the money supply by central banks (in the monetary base).
Such strong monetary creation will lead to mistrust of economic agents towards the quality and value of money, and will therefore lead to “escape” from money. What are the different stages?
If a single country were to conduct a very expansionary monetary policy, the residents of that country would sell that country's currency (currency) and buy other currencies; there would be a sharp depreciation of the exchange rate and high inflation in this country; But all the OECD countries are conducting this very expansionary monetary policy: there is therefore no switch from one currency to another and, moreover, the exchange rates are very stable between the OECD countries in the recent period;
The first step in the escape from money is then a escape from money to the investment of assets: savers-investors try to get rid of the money and buy other assets (stocks, real estate, gold, etc.). There are therefore bubbles everywhere in asset prices; this is already the case since the subprime crisis and will worsen after the Covid crisis;
This settles the question of money as an investment, but not the question of transaction money. The feeling that the currency is losing value will lead economic agents to look for a transaction currency other than the devalued official currencies; this certainly opens the door to the development of private currencies (various crypto-currencies) provided they are well managed, that is to say that the supply of these currencies does not increase excessively;
It is finally only if the reflex of mistrust towards the currency led, to "get rid of the currency" to purchases of goods and services and not to purchases of assets that there would be inflation prices of goods and services. At the moment, this is not being observed.
The violently expansionary monetary policy carried out in OECD countries will therefore first lead to generalized asset price bubbles; in a second stage, there could be an explosion of the International Monetary System with the rejection of public currencies.
Escape from the currency
The central banks of the OECD countries have embarked on a policy of massive monetization of fiscal deficits put in place in 2020, in order to avoid rising long-term interest rates and a public debt crisis.
This will result in considerable money creation: we believe that the central bank's money supply, the monetary base, will increase by 70% during the year 2020.
This enormous monetary creation will lead to a loss of confidence in the currency, to a distrust of private economic agents towards the value of the currency, and to “run away” from the currency: economic agents try to get rid of currency by purchasing more secure goods or assets.
A note: all OECD countries have the same policy. If only one OECD country were to conduct this very expansionary monetary policy, the holders of that country's currency would sell it to buy other OECD currencies; the currency of this country would depreciate sharply and there would therefore appear high inflation. This is what we see today, for example, in Argentina.
But all the OECD countries are pursuing the same very expansionary monetary policy: there is therefore no reason to switch from one OECD currency to another, and moreover the exchange rates between these currencies are very stable in recent times.
The escape from money could take the form of purchases of goods and services, with each economic agent trying to "get rid" of money by purchasing goods and services. There would then be inflation (of the prices of goods and services), but this does not happen as shown by the lack of correlation between the central bank money supply (the monetary base) and prices.
Asset price inflation
What we are seeing today is the portfolio rebalancing mechanism. Economic agents try to get rid of the excess money they hold by buying financial assets (stocks, bonds, gold, etc.) or real estate. At equilibrium, the currency created by central banks is obviously always the same, but the increase in demand for financial and real estate assets leads to an increase in the prices of these assets, which we have already seen from 2002 to 2008 then after the subprime crisis and what will be even more violent after the Covid crisis.
Since the start of the coronavirus crisis, we have seen the start of the rise in the price of gold.
The first effect of excess money creation and the flight from money is therefore to cause asset price bubbles to appear.
The question of transaction currency
The above therefore corresponds to the role of money as an investment: excess monetary creation leads savers to carry over from money to other financial and real estate assets, hence the bubbles in the prices of these assets.
But what about money as transaction currency?
Economic agents also keep money to finance their spending, and if they lose confidence in the value of money they will try to use currencies other than official state currencies as transaction currency.
This could give an increasing role to private currencies (for example cryptocurrencies) if they are well managed, that is to say if the supply of these currencies does not increase excessively.
This phenomenon has not yet been triggered by the coronavirus crisis, as the evolution of cryptocurrency prices shows (reminder: this article is from May 2020).
Conclusion: two stages in the escape from money
The excess monetary creation by central banks leads to loss of confidence in money, and therefore to run away from money. This has two stages:
1/ The escape from investment money, already present for 10 years, and leading to asset price bubbles;
2/ The escape from transaction currency, not yet present, which can lead to inflation (in the prices of goods and services) if there are massive purchases of goods and services, but also to the replacement of the official public currencies of States by private currencies.
Let's see what's going on in 2021.
Feel free to discuss respectfully
Bitcoin price and S&P500 index are not correlated, I read so many of similar posts last few months but they are not correlated, just because both crashed in March and recovered since does not mean there is a correlation whatsoever. Why would they suddenly become correlated when it wasn't the case in 2019, 2018 and of course 2017
Here's a brand spanking new chart from the little fella who got this thread rolling in the first place all those years ago if you like that sort of thing.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/BiymtBy3-Some-short-term-thoughts/
He seems to be in a rather confident mood.
For better or worse you will make more money on the shitforks getting in now than you will on BTC in a bubbly scenario, and exiting at the right moment of course. That's not tasteful but it's almost certainly true. It's 'Bitcoin' but it's 'cheaper' and that shit never gets old for the waves of hungry newcomers. They will never die. They may fade over time but not this time.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/BiymtBy3-Some-short-term-thoughts/
He seems to be in a rather confident mood.
That's my point. No bull market until scam coins die. But hey just my 2 cents
For better or worse you will make more money on the shitforks getting in now than you will on BTC in a bubbly scenario, and exiting at the right moment of course. That's not tasteful but it's almost certainly true. It's 'Bitcoin' but it's 'cheaper' and that shit never gets old for the waves of hungry newcomers. They will never die. They may fade over time but not this time.
This is a very bold prediction. I personally don't predict a new all time high this year. I also believe a big crash is ahead of us, next few weeks. As long as Bitcoin price does not cross $13800 there is no reason to be a bull.
Next month should be very telling, I expect at least the gap at $9600 to be filled, probably at $7600 too
Looks like this scenario could still play out, I confess I considered this one to be invalid a bit too early. With today's move and the RSI reaching a new high, my point (B) (still in a downtrend) could reach around $12k, it is very convenient there is this gap on the exchange market.
After this price there should be a dump at least to $8.5k and my most preferred target is around $6.5k. At that price one should consider to invest big. My opinion.
After this price there should be a dump at least to $8.5k and my most preferred target is around $6.5k. At that price one should consider to invest big. My opinion.
This is really fine job you made your own thread.I read somecig your speculation you Are doing ok.i subscribed notification of your thread.
One question can btc touch 9600 now?
Very unlikely, maybe a double top at $9480 before going down to $6500.One question can btc touch 9600 now?
I would never take a long position right now, bears are still in control. If you look at Bitcoin price since the all time high, there is a giant ABCDE wave which would make Bitcoin price go back to $6500, coincidentally this is a very big support too.
This is most likely the reason why Bitcoin has been less volatile lately
This is Bitcoin chart since 2017:
I have not spent time yet to check with the different Fibonacci levels, but we could very well be in a ABCDE Elliott wave (of this kind):
It means we will slowly correct to 6k area. I am still holding my short position. I can't be sure this is a ABCDE pattern, I still see 3k as possible, anyway 2022-2023 should be very good for the bulls I might even lose my bet in 2021 
Some reading:
https://www.24elliottwaves.com/abcde-correction
I have not spent time yet to check with the different Fibonacci levels, but we could very well be in a ABCDE Elliott wave (of this kind):
It means we will slowly correct to 6k area. I am still holding my short position. I can't be sure this is a ABCDE pattern, I still see 3k as possible, anyway 2022-2023 should be very good for the bulls
I might even lose my bet in 2021 Some reading:
https://www.24elliottwaves.com/abcde-correction