I don't see how Bitcoin doesn't end up as the long term winner with >50% market share (and probably >80%). Bitcoin's network effects are already enormous, there is no possible IP protection for an upstart with a better version, and Bitcoin can easily incorporate any improvement. Even with the best execution, I don't see how an upstart can convince $150 B of capital to move over to their network before Bitcoin incorporates their improvements.
You could argue that Ethereum does so much more than Bitcoin. But Ethereum comes with major tradeoffs to its function as a currency. Ethereum is a great platform for decentralized applications - and that is its focus. To be that, it sacrifices security (due to its complexity), and then it also doesn't have a limited supply. I think Ethereum will continue to do well as a platform for decentralized applications, but because of its tradeoffs, it will never become the leading decentralized currency. I personally believe the killer app in decentralized blockchains is *currency,* so I therefore think that the winning pure currency will end up being far larger and more valuable than any other blockchain platform.