Hehe, indeed. Were passwords compromised somewhere along the way? I'm only able to log into old stuff because I have a password manager. All my shit is unique/max length random characters.

But you're totally right that it's the day before the full moon.

Holy shit, you guys are still here? Amazing. Haven't checked bitcointalk in years.

Ha. Nice.

I was listening to the Proudhon song, and at one point in the video there is an image of all the forum avatars of the old timers from this thread. I remember being pissed that mine didn't make the cut. Then I was like... are those guys still there? Is Proudhon still here? He/she was calling bubble before anyone even heard of bitcoin, haha. Then I saw the video uploader was TheKoziTwo, who I seem to recall poured a shit ton of cash into Gox before it collapsed.... ouch. Hope he/she is still around.

Good luck with all the wall watching guys. I moved on to crypto twitter. Still HODLing.

Holy shit, you guys are still here.

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2016 Will see a high of just over $3300. 2017 will see a low of ~$1200. Wild rides ahead.

They don't always honor strike price. I know from experience that if the price moves against them, they will charge you for it or cancel your order.

dooglus, you're way too intelligent of a guy to be wasting your time trying to understand why this guy believes this thing.

Heh. If we're judging our credibility on trade history, my last 2 trades were buy @ 230.21 and sell at 499.15. Do I win? No, because that could be luck as much as anything else.

I just logged on to these forums for the first time in like a year today, wondering if the whole thing had been taken over by all the ignorant trolls and newbs that drove me away.

It was a bit of a serendipity that the only name I recognized posted this link. haha

So refreshing to see a newbie who is thinking with his own brain. You're already miles ahead of the rest of this thread man. Keep it up.

I'm obviously not going to be able to persuade you from your viewpoint, and I'm okay with that.

I'll just add that I do understand the dynamics of mining. I was a miner for over 3 years (4 hardware generations). I shut it down and liquidated the equipment the moment that it became evident that we were approaching a point in time where costs would equal or exceed income, despite your claims in OP that no miner would ever do that.

It's entirely possible for halving to be priced in now.

When you buy bitcoin from an exchange (the action that determines bitcoin price) you aren't buying from miners, you're buying from bitcoin holders. Sure, that could INCLUDE miners, but it's not exclusive.

How non-exclusive is it?

According to bitcoinity.org market charts, every day people buy between 1 million and 1.3 million BTC on the exchanges it tracks. If we exclude Houbi and OKcoin (as their numbers are likely inflated) that number falls dramatically to something closer to 200,000 BTC per day. But Houbi and OKcoin are probably doing greater than 0 volume, so let's just say, conservatively, 300,000 BTC are purchased on exchanges every day.

Miners produce (on average) 3600 new BTC per day. If we assume that every miner everywhere sells 100% of his coins immediately, then mined coins represent 1.2% of the supply. If they hold any amount of those coins, than that number is even less.

As we all know, price fluctuations are a result of the ebbs and flows in the bitcoin supply versus demand. So the argument that the reward halving is going to reduce the supply and thus increase the price of bitcoin is indeed valid, but let's not get carried away with 50->100% price increase projections. Remember that people holding coins are not going to have their coins halved, and they represent 98.8% of the daily supply.

So what will happen to the supply (strictly as a result of mining reward halving)?

Well, we're at ~300,000 now, which includes a 3600 mining reward. If we assume once again that all miners everywhere sell 100% of their coins, the biggest impact we could see is a drop of 1800 BTC on the supply side, bringing us down to ~298,200 (or -0.6%).

If everything else stays the same, this would result in a very modest price incline. The deficit is cumulative every day, so in theory the price would have to inch upward to make up for this new 0.6% discrepancy in supply and demand until a new equilibrium is found, but that would not be discernible from normal price movement in all likelihood.

The catch here is that everything else is NOT likely to stay the same. As you can see, there are people that believe that the bitcoin supply will be halved, or that the price will increase 100% immediately after the halving. These beliefs create demand. Demand also rises the price. So while almost nothing is happening on the supply side, we MAY see more significant movements on the demand side.

So why might the halving be already priced in then?

Well, the halving is an event that represents a 0.6% (max.) reduction in the bitcoin supply, something that would warrant a very modest price rise. Meanwhile people have been talking about it and anticipating it for over a year. This means that over that course of time, demand has risen as a result of speculation. Remember that price is set as a function of supply versus demand. Supply going down has the same effect as demand going up in regards to the price. Therefore it can be assumed that any price change that would have happened as a result of the supply side shrinking would have been assumed the moment it could be anticipated on the demand side, which is always immediately with bitcoin.

This doesn't mean that the price WON'T rise immediately before or after the halving. As we saw recently with litecoin, misinformation and hype are powerful (albeit temporary) forces on supply and demand. This is always a possibility, but this would not be a result of the actual halving, only people's perceptions on what a halving will do to the market. After the hype and misinformation phase subsided, the actual supply and demand found it's equilibrium once again roughly 12-14% higher than before the halving (priced in BTC).

He talked about a wide range of topics, but he's also got at least 2 bitcoin related companies, and he has a supercomputer that has been modeling bitcoin scalability, not to mention that he's been a proponent for bitcoin since 2009 (publicly) so he's not a nobody and it's not hard to find a reason he might be on a panel.

Right, but you have to compare that scenario with the one we had before it, which was that we knew nothing about the fate of those coins, and thus the market must assume that they could show up at any time. The new reality is that they could show up at any time after 2020, which is a more bullish scenario.

Just curious, but how did everyone get the impression that he's attention craving? I watched the videos and read the articles/emails and I didn't get that.

I think the bullish part of the story is that the million+ Satoshi BTC stash is locked in a Trust until 2020. If this turns out to be true, (and I'm leaning toward yes) That means there is no risk of satoshi coin dump for the next 4 years at least, which is something that we couldn't say before.

Sold a few coins this morning that I bought at $220 for $499. Feeling pretty good about that now.

Damn, price in China a whopping $55 higher than US. Something's gonna give soon.

I heard there was going to be a 2015 bubble. Maybe you didn't get the memo?