What if the coin goes DOWN?
Can you profit buying the coin (shorting BTC is very difficult from what I understand) if the exchange rate drops? A miner can.
Purchase miner for 0.75BTC. Mine 0.375BTC. BTC goes down to say $100. You have 0.375BTC worth $37.50.
Don't purchase miner, keep the .75BTC. BTC goes down to say $100. You have 0.75BTC worth $75.00.
No matter what happens with the exchange rate of BTC or whether it goes up or down, 0.75BTC is always more than 0.375.
At this point I simply refuse to believe that anyone can be this obtuse or ignorant. You must be trolling.
There's a hidden variable here though. If 1000 or 10000 people decide the same thing (purchase BTC direct rather than mine it), then the
additional purchase pressure makes the exchange rate less likely to go down. (and more likely, up)
The attractiveness of mining now is partly getting BTC from the pool of newly minted coin every day, rather than on an exchange, where
you are opening yourself up to unknown fraud potential, KYC rules, and possibly enriching an early adopter by purchasing their old coin,
or otherwise contributing to the demand side.
The thing that baffles me though is that the upside is completely capped by the size of the initial investment. Because of rising difficulty,
all mining investments become trickle income in a few months. It's like congratulating yourself for buying a share in Apple at $100 (pre
split) and watching it grow to $700. You only realize the $600 profit if you sell it, and you only have one to sell. Once that's done, you're
out of the game. People who purchased a miner and used it for a few months are partial BTC owners, they are not on the path to
the "new wealthy elite". The logical thing at that point is to turn off that miner and move on. It is not logical to decide that they need to
10x the size of their initial investment just to stay in the game.
Once the initial miners decide to get out, the hardware will go on the open market at blow out prices, there will be purchasers for those
who will make new ROI decisions on old hardware at trickle income rates.