i missed the train.

My gut feeling is if it continues to move up 1120 area will be the top before a retrace to coincide with Afrikoins prediction.  It seems to me that many people continue to underestimate the potential for ALTs to permanently capture a large chunk of the market.  Some really nasty problems have bubbled up to the surface as far as bitcoin is concerned.  All the politicking recently has left me with a feeling that BTC is not as anti-fragile as I've felt over the last 3+ years.

can  someone explain this,what does it mean?

I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names?
According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.

Actually xbt follows gold now. And gold follows opposite to dxy (dollar).

So xbt is now officially goes opposite to US dollar.

... I believe we will be heading to 260 soon to complete wave v. In fact, Im fairly sure it has just begun.

There are a couple of options for the all-time count. One that we have finished a full five wave cycle in which case the next rise would be building on the [ I ] of [[III]]. The other (and imo, more likely) scenario is that 1163 was the top of (III) of [III] and we are about to complete [III] with the next big rally to new ATH's.

This is the more likely count in my opinion
http://i.imgur.com/Un9xN3G.png

im still patiently waiting for 420+ to give my coins back to bulls, middle finger formation to 430 would be perfect =)

you did great, don't feel that way

Also, that v of (iii) is targeted for a break of $442 which is going to be seen as bearish by many, and shorts may compound and selling may pick up leading to a longer v below my target and possibly near $400.

So you've experienced a +1,000,000x return but you're not rich?

You should be on the Forbes list

Let me explain this a little. Indicators such as MACD and EWO are momentum indicators and RSI is a strength indicator (it's in the name )

As the price is rising through wave 1, the market is hesitant about a rise, so selling pressure is still present and early buying pressure is beginning to show itself. This creates a small bump in the underlying indicators.

Then wave-2 starts and people who think it's only a correction sell hard. This is why wave-2's are usually much deeper corrections. This also makes the indicators return to where they came for the most part.

Enter wave-3.. This is where many people begin to see the buying pressure, and in fear of missing the train they panic buy "before it's too late". The causes a large spike in the indicators and is resposible for the massive power of 3rd waves.

Wave-4 begins, and with a reluctance to sell, the market meanders sideways for a while. Sometimes twice as long (in time) as the wave-2. The stability makes some less experienced traders sell, and the lack of buying (after all, we must be at the top, right?) allows the indicators to return to a more neutral state, EWO returns to the zero line which by this point, is way down there.

Once we break  up from the 4th wave, those who sold are essentially tricked into buying back. By this point, asks are pulled in search of higher selling points. The price moves very easily with much less force, and the volumes are much lower compared to the 3rd wave. This keeps the indicators from making that big spike we saw in the 3rd wave. That combined with the lower starting point and weaker momentum creates the divergence that signals a topping situation (higher price high with lower indicator high). Then when the smart money has squoze all they can from this run, they hammer the price lower in the larger degree wave-II and it all cycles like that... In both directions, over and over and over...

I'm trying to answer each point in order here...

Experience plays a huge role in counting waves. It's relatively easy to do, but some other factors go into choosing more and less probable counts. There are three simple rules to EW; 1)Wave-2 can not retrace more than 100% of wave-1. 2) Wave-3 is never the shortest wave. and 3) Wave-4 can not retrace into the price territory of wave-1. If you strictly adhere to these rules, it's not so hard. Then there are also a handful of guide lines that make things clearer, though the guide lines are not rules, but more often than not, waves follow the guide lines. Things like Alternation; Says that if wave-2 is a sharp correction, wave-4 will be more sideways and vice versa.
Fibonacci makes the targets a piece of cake as long as you have the right count. For instance, My previous wave-V count was invalidated, but since my targets were hit leading up to the invalidation, the latter waves were counted properly, but something else was amiss. That is when I revise my count and decide where things changed. Some counts/targets can also be correct but take vastly different paths to get there, which is why I have many running counts at any given time.

Intuition should be left out, as difficult as it may be. It is the same as a gut feeling, and while you may be right some, or even most times, it's no different than a guess. EW is a way to gauge probabilities and manage risk by having stops (which I will get into soon). It also tells you what is possible and what is impossible to happen next.

When you have many counts, you begin to see a move coming before it is even expected by your main count. I posted the chart in post #248 because of the underlying technicals and some other things going on. I guess you can say it was intuition, but I felt a change coming that was going to invalidate my count at the time, so I posted the chart. In fact, that is what I use this thread for. Kind of a "thinking out loud" of my thoughts (counts) as the market moves.

I hope I covered everything and answered your question.

Yes, it seems that my original wave-E was the correct one. I changed it because of the scale of the waves preceding it. The triangle is indeed complete and we are heading down in the purple count. As for targets and wave numbers, I will have to work up an update but you math skills sound about right for a target if it is the 5th. I did post an alternate count a week or two ago outlining a count where the triangle was 4 of III. If that is the case, then the initial target will be higher since it's for a lower degree wave. I have a few things to do this morning so I will just leave this for now