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Re: How much would you pay for a bitcoin price prediction service with 80% accuracy?
by
Crypt0walker
on 29/01/2018, 13:32:25 UTC
Back to a LONG position on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is currently trading on Bitfinex @ 11,289
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: How much would you pay for a bitcoin price prediction service with 80% accuracy?
by
Crypt0walker
on 29/01/2018, 12:53:27 UTC
Closing the Long now at 11,236. Not peeking up speed enough, will return to long once the algorithm shouts again
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: How much would you pay for a bitcoin price prediction service with 80% accuracy?
by
Crypt0walker
on 29/01/2018, 11:59:03 UTC
guys, check this out. A Prediction in realtime.

Switching temporarily from short to long on bitcoin.
LONG now. Bitcoin is currently trading on bitfinex @ 11,220
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: How much would you pay for a bitcoin price prediction service with 80% accuracy?
by
Crypt0walker
on 29/01/2018, 11:10:34 UTC
As you already stated, you yourself don't fully believe that your prediction will always be correct, because you believed that it is indeed very risky.
So what is your purpose on asking for a Fee for your prediction, that is uncertain to make a profit?

There is a speculation thread here in this forum, why don't you try and help them instead of making them pay.

I was referring to operational risk, not the risk of loss from trading activities, which can be handled with risk management (i.e never risk more than 2-8% of equity on a trade).

I will never pay for any services like this even with discounted price because there is no way for anyone to predict what exactly will be the movement of the price of Bitcoin. And lets say your previous prediction are right but that is all just speculations and no real proof, that is why we can say that it is just a luck. And I also think that people will not have any interest on paying for this, they would rather pay for pump and dump groups (which is also not recommended) than pay for predictions that have no guarantee that it is accurate.

VitKoyn (or others), what kind of proof would suffice to convince you?

I've written 5 predictions here in realtime, 5/5 were correct.
If I would write 30 predictions (in realtime, that you can verify prices match bitfinex) of which around 24 would be correct, would that suffice?
If I would manage a portfolio, with trades written in realtime in the forum, which generates at least 50% profit in 1 month, would that suffice?
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: How much would you pay for a bitcoin price prediction service with 80% accuracy?
by
Crypt0walker
on 29/01/2018, 09:45:56 UTC
Nothing is wrong with your services here but there is one matter of fact that people will focus on the thing that if you could predict that with 80% of accuracy then why not use it your self and just get rich through the night!

Thats what you mentioned in your post above. People here want services which will make them trust it at the very first time and not just predict things, and get confused with it.

The confusion? How great is that you have algorithm to predict the correct prices but still you are here hawking for the pennies in exchange with that service above! This will create bad loop in everyone's head I tell you!

People won't spend money because they trust on the systems which are in place since old times, which are socially popular and are in the discussion everyday. You may struggle a lot with that one.

I would suggest you to create free services initial, may be a website or something where you predict the prices everyday and then you match the thing with everyday real time data. If people start recognising your site then you can start charging for your services.

You are right and pointed the main issue with "prediction" services. If they work - why don't they just make a living out of it?
This is why most are scam or not really good at all.

Well in my case it's not that simple.
I can make a living from it, but it's risky, because to trade you need to have funds in the exchanges - which as everyone know is not very safe.
I won't put big sums in an exchange at any given time, and that makes it hard to generate big profits.

It's enough to make a living though, but that's not enough.
I was wondering if a service can generate a lot of revenue, but from people's responses there isn't a demand for it.

There is also the fun of showing people you can practically predict the future, and helping them.

So far the responses in this thread suggest it's better to just stop publishing my predictions here.
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Board Trading Discussion
Re: Crypto trades based on machine learning algorithms
by
Crypt0walker
on 29/01/2018, 07:30:39 UTC
Closing half of the SHORT position, bitcoin is trading on bitfinex now @ 11,373
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Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
How much would you pay for a bitcoin price prediction service with 80% accuracy?
by
Crypt0walker
on 28/01/2018, 18:53:57 UTC
I've written numerous predictions on bitcoin's price in these threads:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2816963.msg29119975#msg29119975
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2791022.msg28710242#msg28710242

I can prove unmatched ability to predict it's movement (I use unique machine learning algorithms).

Currently wondering if I should continue using it for my own profit, or is there anything to gain from creating a service?
A profit from a service would have to be significant in order to be worth it, so i'm wondering how much would people pay for it?

You can see my predictions in realtime now - I am SHORT on bitcoin right now (Current price in bitfinex is $11,550). Watch the price as it drops soon.

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Board Trading Discussion
Re: Crypto trades based on machine learning algorithms
by
Crypt0walker
on 28/01/2018, 18:21:03 UTC
11,769 on bitfinex. Everything's ready, going to drop soon.

Please note - This is not written in order to spread FUD. I suggset to follow in realtime and see my predictions becoming reality.
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Re: Crypto trades based on machine learning algorithms
by
Crypt0walker
on 28/01/2018, 17:20:06 UTC
Taking a SHORT position on bitcoin now, 4% stop

Bitcoin is currently trading on bitfinex @ $11,784
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Re: Crypto trades based on machine learning algorithms
by
Crypt0walker
on 26/01/2018, 15:37:15 UTC
Closing half of the bitcoin long position now, bitcoin is currently trading on bitfinex @ $10,958
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Re: Crypto trades based on machine learning algorithms
by
Crypt0walker
on 26/01/2018, 15:27:52 UTC
Closing half of the bitcoin long position now, bitcoin is currently trading on bitfinex @ $10,905
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Board Trading Discussion
Re: Crypto trades based on machine learning algorithms
by
Crypt0walker
on 26/01/2018, 13:35:21 UTC
doubling up the long position, bitcoin is currently trading on bitfinex @ $10,554
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Board Trading Discussion
Re: Crypto trades based on machine learning algorithms
by
Crypt0walker
on 26/01/2018, 12:55:58 UTC
As I wrote in this thread, I'm short bitcoin (at least until it reaches $8,000, we'll see then):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2791022.msg28669294#msg28669294

I do flip from short to long / increase my short position from time to time.

Temporarily closing my short position and changing to a LONG position now. Bitcoin is currently trading on Bitfinex @ $10,634

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Re: Crypto trades based on machine learning algorithms
by
Crypt0walker
on 24/01/2018, 20:27:57 UTC
With stop losses and profit margins that small, wouldn't you think that one bad call could just set you back a good amount if it was to go down let us say 1000 in one day but then the next day its back up 1500? I mean the system will probably work for some time, but I really don't see it working in this volatile of a market which sees fluctuations like your stop-loss in a normal hour.

Could you maybe show us a history of all of your trades to see how this has been working?

It's actually the opposite from what you'd expect - the volatility is great, the more volatile the better. consolidation times are when profits become lower.
The profit margins vary, sometimes they're more than x5 away than the stop, giving me a R:R (risk/reward) ratio of 1:5+.

I wrote a few trades in the thread I linked to before. I claim and hope to prove the price of bitcoin can be predicted with more accuracy than people can imagine.

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Re: Crypto trades based on machine learning algorithms
by
Crypt0walker
on 24/01/2018, 18:51:29 UTC
How are you calculating all this signals. Do you do it for bittrex only or if people give you their exchange so you can calculate and let them know? Also do you provide the trades base don altcoins as well or only for the bitcoin you can help ?


regarding the exchanges, I wrote about it in this message https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2791022.msg28684522#msg28684522

It works on any cryptocurrency / cryptocurrency pairs with enough volume (ETH/BTC,XLM/BTC,XRP/BTC,XRP/USD,... many more)
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Re: Crypto trades based on machine learning algorithms
by
Crypt0walker
on 24/01/2018, 18:37:02 UTC
Closing the second half (trailing stop gain) now @ 11,037
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Re: Crypto trades based on machine learning algorithms
by
Crypt0walker
on 24/01/2018, 18:00:15 UTC
Closing half now @ 11,102
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Board Trading Discussion
Crypto trades based on machine learning algorithms
by
Crypt0walker
on 24/01/2018, 17:09:22 UTC
Taking a long position on Bitcoin.

Stop loss: 3%
Profit goal: 5-9%
Bitcoin is currently trading @ $10,954 on bitfinex.
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Re: Taking SHORT bitcoin right now - currently trading at 12732 on CMC
by
Crypt0walker
on 22/01/2018, 22:39:22 UTC
Thanks, which exchanges do you prefer for shorting?  What sort of rate, if any, do you pay for the borrow?

I like bitmex. The rate you pay is called "funding rate", it varies from day to day depending on market conditions.
There's also a comission which ranges between %0.025 to %0.125 depending if you make a market order or create liquidity through the book.
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Re: Taking SHORT bitcoin right now - currently trading at 12732 on CMC
by
Crypt0walker
on 22/01/2018, 21:25:02 UTC
with 3 percent stop.

Should start dropping very soon

* This is not a recommendation to act and is based on my personal algorithms

How does one short bitcoin, please?

There are a number of exchanges that allow shorting, such as bitmex.com.

Please be careful and always use a stop-loss when shorting,
and be aware it's not recommended for less experienced traders since you have to know the exact right time to enter a position.