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Another scenario is that banks co-opt Bitcoin providing "wallet security services".
Dont get me wrong you can still start new "banks" for bitcoin but they will be different.
I expect whole swathes of the older generation will never choose to switch to the Be Your Own Bank model, computers are terrifying enough as it is without being given the ability to delete your life savings. I'm currently picturing the look on their face when you say to them "But you can back it up in many safe and secure ways!". Forcing their hand with ginormous economic calamities is the only way certain over-the-hill conservative refuseniks would ever switch.
That is the unavoidable truth of an "account" not bound to an identity. There are plenty of banks that work the same way where if you lose your account details just showing up and saying "Yo! I was that dude that opened a vault/account here but I forgot my access" will not be enough.
The real question you should ask yourself however is not what if your local data gets erased.. but if you will have local data in the first place? There is a reasonable chance that people will be moving in the direction of cloud storage where your data would be keep secure by the internet.
Why use big words to describe simple stuff? Banks in general are an attempt to exploit the limitations of money and therefore runs the risk of being rendered obsolete or incompatible depending on how currency (in this case) changes. There are plenty of other things that suffers the same threat of becoming useless and antique. Be it CD and cartridges for the purpose of distributing computer games and programs in the age of the internet, small plastic industry in the dawn of the affordable 3d printer or lets take something that has already come and gone, letters to contain your messages in the age of Email and instant messaging.
Lets be more specific however. What is the true commodity that Banks offer you? Its "Security" believe it or not with all the bank crashes and bullshit they pull today. What is the main property of Bitcoins? Its a crypto currency which means it comes into a direct conflict with the basics of Banks. Not only that but it also removes the physical restrictions of today's currencies that banks exploited.
Dont get me wrong you can still start new "banks" for bitcoin but they will be different.
Lets be more specific however. What is the true commodity that Banks offer you? Its "Security" believe it or not with all the bank crashes and bullshit they pull today. What is the main property of Bitcoins? Its a crypto currency which means it comes into a direct conflict with the basics of Banks. Not only that but it also removes the physical restrictions of today's currencies that banks exploited.
Dont get me wrong you can still start new "banks" for bitcoin but they will be different.
This has nothing to do with the end of bitcoin, but about things that are going to cause problems for the regular investor. I have been thinking about this for a while. Before starting, I assume the price of bitcoins has been lifted due to speculation.
First, the people selling asic machines in return for bitcoins are going to destroy bitcoins for a period of time. Think as a seller. You sell a bunch of miners for bitcoins and let the people attempt to reap the rewards of mining. Once price rises enough, you sell out and reap the benefits before miners can. What perpetuates the price rising is early adopters who spread word of their earnings bringing in more people who want to get rich. In order to sustain the price and continue rising, you need more people to invest in the currency and believe in it. once influx of people come, this is where as a seller of machine i'd sell out or the next big wave.
It is the greed in which people want to earn money that will make this system fall faster because everyone will invest in miners and coins and watch them rise. Which it will, no doubt, but at who's expense? You and me the regular investor. It's the same in stocks or our own market. Remember this - when everyone believes they can make lots of money, that is when you get worried. All it takes is one bomb (mass sell off) to start and then rest of the disaster starts. As many investors tell you - MANAGE YOUR RISK.
First, the people selling asic machines in return for bitcoins are going to destroy bitcoins for a period of time. Think as a seller. You sell a bunch of miners for bitcoins and let the people attempt to reap the rewards of mining. Once price rises enough, you sell out and reap the benefits before miners can. What perpetuates the price rising is early adopters who spread word of their earnings bringing in more people who want to get rich. In order to sustain the price and continue rising, you need more people to invest in the currency and believe in it. once influx of people come, this is where as a seller of machine i'd sell out or the next big wave.
It is the greed in which people want to earn money that will make this system fall faster because everyone will invest in miners and coins and watch them rise. Which it will, no doubt, but at who's expense? You and me the regular investor. It's the same in stocks or our own market. Remember this - when everyone believes they can make lots of money, that is when you get worried. All it takes is one bomb (mass sell off) to start and then rest of the disaster starts. As many investors tell you - MANAGE YOUR RISK.
Spoken like a true investor. The thing is "Bitcoin" is just using you (the greedy investors) as a stepping stone. Remember Bitcoin wants to be more then just an investment opportunity like stocks. It want to become an actual currency that people use. To do that it needs a certain amount of backing to be a viable form of currency. This is where the greed of the foolish comes in. Yes you can make your investment and cash in your reward but by using you Bitcoin can become and established currency not prone to your average investment predictions.
Edit:
Also.. yeah... I do not think the companies making the miners have that elaborate scheme planned. That is just far fetched.
Good point. I guess its not a plan scam us, but more a plan to protect themselves. I think Avalon has tons of bitcoins somewhere in the 50,000+ range. Some other smaller companies as well. I think one thing they've managed to do is play smart with cashing out. But in order to protect themselves, they will likely sell out on the next peak especially since AValon pulled a huge amount of Bitcoins sellign chips.
This has nothing to do with the end of bitcoin, but about things that are going to cause problems for the regular investor. I have been thinking about this for a while. Before starting, I assume the price of bitcoins has been lifted due to speculation.
First, the people selling asic machines in return for bitcoins are going to destroy bitcoins for a period of time. Think as a seller. You sell a bunch of miners for bitcoins and let the people attempt to reap the rewards of mining. Once price rises enough, you sell out and reap the benefits before miners can. What perpetuates the price rising is early adopters who spread word of their earnings bringing in more people who want to get rich. In order to sustain the price and continue rising, you need more people to invest in the currency and believe in it. once influx of people come, this is where as a seller of machine i'd sell out or the next big wave.
It is the greed in which people want to earn money that will make this system fall faster because everyone will invest in miners and coins and watch them rise. Which it will, no doubt, but at who's expense? You and me the regular investor. It's the same in stocks or our own market. Remember this - when everyone believes they can make lots of money, that is when you get worried. All it takes is one bomb (mass sell off) to start and then rest of the disaster starts. As many investors tell you - MANAGE YOUR RISK.
First, the people selling asic machines in return for bitcoins are going to destroy bitcoins for a period of time. Think as a seller. You sell a bunch of miners for bitcoins and let the people attempt to reap the rewards of mining. Once price rises enough, you sell out and reap the benefits before miners can. What perpetuates the price rising is early adopters who spread word of their earnings bringing in more people who want to get rich. In order to sustain the price and continue rising, you need more people to invest in the currency and believe in it. once influx of people come, this is where as a seller of machine i'd sell out or the next big wave.
It is the greed in which people want to earn money that will make this system fall faster because everyone will invest in miners and coins and watch them rise. Which it will, no doubt, but at who's expense? You and me the regular investor. It's the same in stocks or our own market. Remember this - when everyone believes they can make lots of money, that is when you get worried. All it takes is one bomb (mass sell off) to start and then rest of the disaster starts. As many investors tell you - MANAGE YOUR RISK.
Spoken like a true investor. The thing is "Bitcoin" is just using you (the greedy investors) as a stepping stone. Remember Bitcoin wants to be more then just an investment opportunity like stocks. It want to become an actual currency that people use. To do that it needs a certain amount of backing to be a viable form of currency. This is where the greed of the foolish comes in. Yes you can make your investment and cash in your reward but by using you Bitcoin can become and established currency not prone to your average investment predictions.
Edit:
Also.. yeah... I do not think the companies making the miners have that elaborate scheme planned. That is just far fetched.
meen that picture is bullshit you are a fool
Sounds like someone can't handle the truth.
"Redistribution of wealth"... I do not see a problem if its necessary besides its not like it does not happen in a capitalist society. Inheritance being a key flaw in "To each according to his abilities" and "Rewards success"... or a wealthy father/mother. Poking holes is so fun :3
"Collective ownership"... Corporations, democracy and countries are all Collective ownerships. Dont see you complain about that.
"Large welfare systems"... Or small ones depending on how much your country sucks to live in. You know human rights is a need that should be filled regardless of the cost. If its too expensive for you then perhaps you are doing something else wrong.
"Large invasive government" Because socialism is all about looking in your mailbox? Really grow up.
You may actually want to educate yourself about what socialism and capitalism actually means because I do not think it means what you think it means if that makes any sense to you. Feel free to attack Socialism all you like since its not like its a perfect system but right now you are just uninformed and it makes me sad.
Quote
Sorry, Im not sure I understand what you're saying.
To be clear, I still believe things are in a very very big mess. I reject this situation above.
I didn't assume knowing anybody? Infact, I posted because I wanted to see if anybody held the same views.
I believe we could be , as Peter Schiff says, in the "eye of the storm". Things are not getting better in the economy, it seems to be the opposite. It's just a matter of time before people realize.
Having said that, the disclaimer above sort of says that I am not a professional economist, I do not spend hours looking at all the different facts and statistics. I am not qualified in economics and I have not experience working at a hedge fund or government department, although I do follow the news closely. I have worked in investment banking for a while as an investment analyst, but I currently do not work as a market professional. Therefore I would be classed as an amateur speculator. Despite this, I believe that sometimes one can just use intuition and boldness to be right when other people are wrong. Technical analysis isn't everything. Sometimes the facts really are obvious. I believe now is one of those situations..
In every instance there are winners and losers. If America falls then someone else will raise and take its place just like when France,England and Germany fell America took their place. It is hardly unique for these events to happen and we are always taken by surprise for some reason.
Anyway I have to say there is still a few key events that has to occur before USA will fall from its throne. One would be the enormous economic advantage the dollar enjoys being the currency used in buying oil and China stopping giving loans to the American government because it fears they wont be paid back. There is allot of safety nets protecting USA right now which is why they can be this careless without much worry. Since im an outsider who will not be affected by any potential fallout this might cause I will be watching with popcorn at the ready. Have fun and good luck with your country.
^^ i thought we were all kind, stupid, lying friends here?
Son of a *****! You mean to tell me.. there is a chance that there is a priest amongst us?
That changes everything! we must find him immediately! He knows secrets about the end!
Decepticons roll out!
EXACTLY!Son of a *****! You mean to tell me.. there is a chance that there is a priest amongst us?
That changes everything! we must find him immediately! He knows secrets about the end!
Decepticons roll out!
Wow.. I kind've wish this thread would disappear.
Although I still feel very bad about the economy
Memo to avoid creating any similar threads
I would just post this for any similar Austrian economists, who haven't already heard it before. Or anybody who's just reading this from top to bottom. It gives you something to think about.
The owner of a ship noticed that his ship was filling with water. Being an educated man (if not nautically trained) he knew there were many possible causes for water in a ship: leaks in the hull, the bilge pump being broken, waves washing over, condensation, and even the crew urinating in the hold. He heard the bilge pump running, he saw water from waves pouring in the open hatches, but worst of all he smelled urine in the hold! Being sensible, he ordered the crew to shut the hatches and then gave them a lengthy, stern harangue on hygienic use of the head. While he was lecturing the crew, his ship sank due to a combination of causes: large, unobserved leaks in the hull, a bilge pump that was running but not pumping correctly, and condensation that had shorted out warning circuitry.
http://critiquesoflibertarianism.blogspot.co.uk/2009/05/parable-of-ship-why-austrian-economics.html
Personally I reject this in the current economic situation..... but, things may just be more complicated than we all realize.
Although I still feel very bad about the economy
Memo to avoid creating any similar threads
I would just post this for any similar Austrian economists, who haven't already heard it before. Or anybody who's just reading this from top to bottom. It gives you something to think about.
The owner of a ship noticed that his ship was filling with water. Being an educated man (if not nautically trained) he knew there were many possible causes for water in a ship: leaks in the hull, the bilge pump being broken, waves washing over, condensation, and even the crew urinating in the hold. He heard the bilge pump running, he saw water from waves pouring in the open hatches, but worst of all he smelled urine in the hold! Being sensible, he ordered the crew to shut the hatches and then gave them a lengthy, stern harangue on hygienic use of the head. While he was lecturing the crew, his ship sank due to a combination of causes: large, unobserved leaks in the hull, a bilge pump that was running but not pumping correctly, and condensation that had shorted out warning circuitry.
http://critiquesoflibertarianism.blogspot.co.uk/2009/05/parable-of-ship-why-austrian-economics.html
Personally I reject this in the current economic situation..... but, things may just be more complicated than we all realize.
You need to be aware of the people around you. Assassins can be kind, stupid can appear smart, honest can appear to be lying and friends could be foes. It is always an mistake to assume you know the people around you without ever having questioned them. But honestly when you open up with "perhaps I am preaching to the choir" you set yourself up for a rude awakening.
It will end as all civilised societies ended: with a collapse. I call it Tainter's Law. It ends by the diminishing return on additional investment in additional complexity. The difference to earlier collapses is the fact, that today 500 nuclear reactors will blow its nuclear inventory around the northern part of the planet as soon as nobody will cool them anymore.
This is a rediculous idea. Again, nuclear power industry accidents across all of the history of the world do not exceed the amount of radioactive material that is launched into the atmostphere by the worlds coal plants in a single year, and we have been burning coal for almost 200 years, and seriously powering industry with it for over 100 years. Modern nuke plants don't really 'blow', and even if 100 of them had leakage accidents similar to what happened in Japan (very, very unlikely) we still wouldn't exceed what humanity has already dosed our environment with over the past 100+ years. That plant had a quadruple redundant emergency cooling system, which we now know isn't quite good enough for a 1:10K year tsumami wave. It's certainly more than enough for a global economic breakdown,
Dream on! (your ridiculous dreams).
Fukushima blew out a significant part of its inventory. In case of a black out of the whole power grid, which is a question of when but not of if (sun storm, economic collapse and panic/revolution etc.), it would have blown out its inventory totally, and so would have all the other reactors. Power grids become more and more fragile to maintain the 50 Hertz, totally depending on the computerised, hypercollectivised communication system.
Societies collapse, because societies are problem solving societies (Tainter). Each solved problem increases the complexity in the system, and increased complexity generates diminishing returns until the end (bifurcation point), when additional investion in additional complexity generates negative returns. Forget at least the northern part of this planet if this society will not end the nuclear industry.
Probably it won't, because society means collective stupidity, which until today always ended collapsing. This society will also end abruptly in a worldwide, globalised panic with worldwide bank 'holidays' and nobody will go to work anymore; not to the banks and not to cool the nuclear reactors. Nuclear reactors need each other to cool them, but after a black out you'll have to cool all of them. The collective stupidity will not be able to do this.
Do you know why Fukushima "blew"? Just asking because it was quite a silly string of bad coincidences stringed together. A one in a billion type of thing. There is no reason for any other modern nuclear powerplant to end up in the same way and given any other day of the week Fukushima itself would probably have been shut down harmlessly.
Re: [Group Buy] Avalon ASIC Chips (SebastianJu) Batch 6: 1998 ASICs gone 51998 sold
Would be a shame to have to use a fan to cool. Could imagine it giving a large price increase for power consumption. Would be allot sweeter to have a chip that is comfortable working at high temperatures period.
Avalons have fans too, burnins design too and some klondike assemblers plan to use fans too. I think when wanting to use it without fans it has to be undervolted to lower the heat.
Re: [Group Buy] Avalon ASIC Chips (SebastianJu) Batch 6: 1998 ASICs gone 51998 sold
Look at this info from Bitsyncom/Yifu:
......
But i find it funny that the old technique, that is used by Asicminer or Avalon is nearly as good pricewise like the newest asic-tech that comes on the market.
Only some thoughts. Correct me if im wrong.
......
But i find it funny that the old technique, that is used by Asicminer or Avalon is nearly as good pricewise like the newest asic-tech that comes on the market.
Only some thoughts. Correct me if im wrong.
KNCMiner says: 500 W 175 GH/s that means: 2.86 J/GH
Burnin/Avalon says: 40 W 5.56 GH/s that means: 7.19 J/GH
So on the long term, when difficulty increases and power requirements count, the new techniques should be better.
But nobody knows if KNCMiner meets its power requirements or will ever deliver.
However we are pretty sure that we will get something from Burnin/Avalon in time.
All ASIC developers (AVALON, BFL, KNCMiner) try to sell their products at prices as high as they can.
Much more than the actual costs.
I didnt take the power consumption into account yet because its not a factor yet. But youre right of course. In the long term, when the power cost will mean something, then it will be a factor.
I guess avalon 2.0 will be similar to the chips from knc, bitfury and bfl. That means it will take time until they are ready. An advantage of them is that the assembly cost will be lower per gh too, a downside might be the higher heat if im not mistaken. But of course one day newer chips has to be used because the power costs are so high that running old asics isnt rewarding anymore. But thats away some time.
Re: [Group Buy] Avalon ASIC Chips (SebastianJu) Batch 6: 1998 ASICs gone 51998 sold
Look at this info from Bitsyncom/Yifu:
......
But i find it funny that the old technique, that is used by Asicminer or Avalon is nearly as good pricewise like the newest asic-tech that comes on the market.
Only some thoughts. Correct me if im wrong.
......
But i find it funny that the old technique, that is used by Asicminer or Avalon is nearly as good pricewise like the newest asic-tech that comes on the market.
Only some thoughts. Correct me if im wrong.
KNCMiner says: 500 W 175 GH/s that means: 2.86 J/GH
Burnin/Avalon says: 40 W 5.56 GH/s that means: 7.19 J/GH
So on the long term, when difficulty increases and power requirements count, the new techniques should be better.
But nobody knows if KNCMiner meets its power requirements or will ever deliver.
However we are pretty sure that we will get something from Burnin/Avalon in time.
All ASIC developers (AVALON, BFL, KNCMiner) try to sell their products at prices as high as they can.
Much more than the actual costs.
I didnt take the power consumption into account yet because its not a factor yet. But youre right of course. In the long term, when the power cost will mean something, then it will be a factor.
Re: [Group Buy] Avalon ASIC Chips (SebastianJu) Batch 6: 853 ASICs gone 50853 sold
Batch #6 goes so slowly 
I am going to buy 1500 from batch #6 if there's a progression.
I am going to buy 1500 from batch #6 if there's a progression.
Do if you like but its not like its going to go faster that way. There are probably plenty of people wanting to buy Asics from here right now but is afraid that the batch will never happen. Its a Catch-22 in that sense. If you want to help you might want to consider at least ordering some of that now since the first 1000 chips is most likely the hardest to collect.
Re: [Group Buy] Avalon ASIC Chips (SebastianJu) Batch 6: 658 ASICs gone 50658 sold
So 1Aq1Kt6LBPgXxzq86DPwoZHAM83iAKb9H3 is where i am supposed to send the bitcoins and the cost of shipping will be added later?
Sorry but i cant think straight and think I will be going to sleep for today.
Sorry but i cant think straight and think I will be going to sleep for today.
Re: [5300 GH] Eligius: Decntrlzd, ASIC-rdy, 0Fee CPPSRB, 0reg, BTC, 877 # support
How can i get a manual payout? I am mining from a small computer and just reaching the minimum amount takes 2 weeks and i only need a tiny amount more to afford 2 avalon mining chips.
Address?
done.
Re: [5300 GH] Eligius: Decntrlzd, ASIC-rdy, 0Fee CPPSRB, 0reg, BTC, 877 # support
How can i get a manual payout? I am mining from a small computer and just reaching the minimum amount takes 2 weeks and i only need a tiny amount more to afford 2 avalon mining chips.
Address?
Re: [5300 GH] Eligius: Decntrlzd, ASIC-rdy, 0Fee CPPSRB, 0reg, BTC, 877 # support
How can i get a manual payout? I am mining from a small computer and just reaching the minimum amount takes 2 weeks and i only need a tiny amount more to afford 2 avalon mining chips.
Oh please like I care what you bother to call any particular phenomena, theory, function etc... Its just a waste of time to go through the trouble.
Since when did "Nuclear fuel" become "Bombs"? I think i should have been notified of this in advance since well.. I am the one you are talking to.
Anyway back on topic. Albert Einstein and the Manhattan project. Put down the ground work and the possibility for the research into nukes to exist, driving force behind the programs creation, personal connections with other major people etc.. etc.. etc..
I wonder what would have happened to the project if Albert Einstein had not signed the letter. Would the allies simply have rejected it or perhaps not taken it seriously at all? Who knows. All i know is its like Einstein invented electricity and they made a battery.
I guess the cookie question was too much for you. When I was 19, it was all the rage in the crowd I ran with.
"The most common fissile nuclear fuels are uranium-235 (235U) and plutonium-239 (239Pu)."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_fuel
Only fissile isotopes of certain elements have the potential for use in nuclear weapons. Additionally they must be produced in sufficient quantity and purity to be usable. Uranium-235 and plutonium-239 are well known examples for which this is the case.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weapons-grade
U-235 and Pu-239 are both fuel and, in a more refined form, weapons grade material. I expected you to be familiar with this.
What if Albert Einstein had not signed the letter? No idea. What if Leó Szilárd didn't write it? What if Teller and Wigner had not agreed with the concerns in the letter? What if Alexander Sachs had failed to deliver it? Sounds like Al gets 20% of the credit.
BTW, it would be discovered electricity and invented the battery. One existed before it was discovered where the other one was created for the first time.
... Great... remind me never to play "lets pretend" with you since you do not understand what imagination is. Whatever equivalency aside you actually graced my point here. What if Leo Szilard had not written that letter? Would there have been someone else who could or would have? Most likely YES. Could you have taken those 130,000 people involved in the manhattan project and replace them while still end up with a nuke? Most likely YES. Would it have been possible without Einstein? No.
If Einstine had not given this project his support and done the discoveries he did before that there would have been no nuke above Hiroshima Monday, August 6, 1945.
So. Your proof for this statement is?
I am of the opinion that some other luminary would be point man on the letter with as much effect.
What proof do you provide that nuclear physics would not have developed with out E=mc^2?
BTW, what was the first practical experiment that showed E=mc^2 was the correct equation? This might help you determine how important this idea was to building the atom bomb.
E=mc^2 does not necessarily need to be directly proven because its a consequence of Special relativity. Not to mention its proven useful in practice. Its kind of like how we dont need to directly observe black holes or the higgs to assume they are there because assuming they exist helps us understand other parts like how much energy can be released from a nuke.
Without Einstein saying you can make a bomb out of radioactive materials is like saying i can make a bomb out of peanut butter. Its not like gunpowder where you just need to add fire and watch it explode. The whole point of the Manhattan project was to figure out in practice how to do something they had already done on paper.
Aside from that E=mc^2 has very little implications to nuclear physics (and i never said otherwise). It only comes into effect when you go from atoms to energy or back and unifies nuclear physics with energy physics.
Oh please like I care what you bother to call any particular phenomena, theory, function etc... Its just a waste of time to go through the trouble.
Since when did "Nuclear fuel" become "Bombs"? I think i should have been notified of this in advance since well.. I am the one you are talking to.
Anyway back on topic. Albert Einstein and the Manhattan project. Put down the ground work and the possibility for the research into nukes to exist, driving force behind the programs creation, personal connections with other major people etc.. etc.. etc..
I wonder what would have happened to the project if Albert Einstein had not signed the letter. Would the allies simply have rejected it or perhaps not taken it seriously at all? Who knows. All i know is its like Einstein invented electricity and they made a battery.
I guess the cookie question was too much for you. When I was 19, it was all the rage in the crowd I ran with.
"The most common fissile nuclear fuels are uranium-235 (235U) and plutonium-239 (239Pu)."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_fuel
Only fissile isotopes of certain elements have the potential for use in nuclear weapons. Additionally they must be produced in sufficient quantity and purity to be usable. Uranium-235 and plutonium-239 are well known examples for which this is the case.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weapons-grade
U-235 and Pu-239 are both fuel and, in a more refined form, weapons grade material. I expected you to be familiar with this.
What if Albert Einstein had not signed the letter? No idea. What if Leó Szilárd didn't write it? What if Teller and Wigner had not agreed with the concerns in the letter? What if Alexander Sachs had failed to deliver it? Sounds like Al gets 20% of the credit.
BTW, it would be discovered electricity and invented the battery. One existed before it was discovered where the other one was created for the first time.
... Great... remind me never to play "lets pretend" with you since you do not understand what imagination is. Whatever equivalency aside you actually graced my point here. What if Leo Szilard had not written that letter? Would there have been someone else who could or would have? Most likely YES. Could you have taken those 130,000 people involved in the manhattan project and replace them while still end up with a nuke? Most likely YES. Would it have been possible without Einstein? No.
If Einstine had not given this project his support and done the discoveries he did before that there would have been no nuke above Hiroshima Monday, August 6, 1945.