Bitcoin may not necessarily have a traditional single S-curve hockey stick, because there are a number of completely different markets it competes for that could achieve critical mass over completely independent timeframes.
I will only try to explain to you that the logistics model does not apply to the market of speculation, but applies to the adoption of bona fide technology (eg radio adoption, TV, car, cell phone, etc. Instead of speculative markets, an exponential price followed by the fall of the waterfall.
The exponential increase in the market of speculation always has a waterfall collision. Can you find a counter example? For example, look at the history of Cisco and Microsoft stock prices. There is something that everyone should use on the internet, the router, but you see the exponential rise and fall of the waterfall.
Do not configure the general crypto-currency application with speculation that Bitcoin is perfect. Because replacing the existing 100-year financial system with a new model for the community requires a lot of analysis. It's not as simple as the real benefits of TV or mobile phone. It seems that the aggregate result for Bitcoin is dystopian so it is unlikely to be stable. And as a mathematician you must apply and understand well that irrelevant models if the wrong ones are still applied.
I do not think we'll see a waterfall collapse like in Bitcoin (at least not one that does not recover the trend) soon.