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Showing 20 of 43 results by Dr.Zaius
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Board Mining speculation
Re: $30,000 on mining or spent on buying coins?
by
Dr.Zaius
on 20/04/2014, 07:20:43 UTC
Neither.

Ask yourself if bitcoin is the currency of the future why is the guy who is selling to you parting with his? Especially for filthy fiat? You will be handing 30k to a miner that conjured units of nothing up from thin air because of an "algo".

The time to buy bitcoin was when the market cap was in the low millions, even at low hundreds of millions. Today fully mined supply puts the value at $10-12billion.

You will sleep better having enjoyed the money on something else. You know like something you may actually need and find enjoyment in. Bitcoin has ruined more lives then it has helped.
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: losing faith
by
Dr.Zaius
on 20/04/2014, 07:07:03 UTC
The OP talks about wanting to spend his BTC.

The responses are referencing getting rich quick and remembering the past dips rebounding.

Hilarity.
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Quick Figures on the size of Bitcoin Economy to Support Miners
by
Dr.Zaius
on 20/04/2014, 06:22:58 UTC
More people are starting to do the math and realize running the bitcoin network costs an absolute fuckload. Bitcoin developers have very low or limited knowledge of actual economics.

The problem with bitcoin's coin distribution is its based on the flawed quantity theory of money. Satoshi believed scarcity was the only property needed to set value. Coins are produced regardless if there is market demand for them or not. On the flip side, when market demand is strong we see extreme deflation(price rise) followed by extreme inflation(price collapse). No mechanism exists to respond to changing demand for bitcoin. Miner's tend to exacerbate the downside when they deplete fiat bid pools.

Miners are constantly on the ask side. Why wouldn't they be? They are realizing free gains.

People make the justification that the miner reward somehow helps strengthen the network. This argument falls flat on its face. What exactly is the price for securing the network in the first place? How is it set?

The problem lies within the fact as the real value of a BTC rises, it costs more to run the network. This is because the block reward is fixed.

At $1000 per BTC it cost 3.6 million per day to "secure" 60,000 transactions.
At $500 per BTC it costs 1.8 million per day to secure 60,000 transactions.

You see the problem here? The security subsidy is not even based on actual security, but the real value of 1 unit of BTC. This is called rent seeking. Users are forced to absorb rising costs. So not only does a BTC become more expensive, but subsidizing it's network does too. Bitcoin's price and it's users are under the whim of what miners decide to do. The same way economies of old were strangled by a perpetual gold shortage, bitcoin ecosystem will face perpetual shortage of supply. Well until miners and large holders exchange it(or lend) at grossly inflated margins(or interest rates).

Satoshi justified his coin distribution scheme because he believed "1 CPU 1 vote." He believed users and miners would be one in the same. The reality is you can never predict what technology does in the future. Hence, what has occurred is an oligarchy of miners who simply feed off of users.
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Jim Rickards New Book "The Death of Money", Review
by
Dr.Zaius
on 20/04/2014, 06:09:34 UTC
Dude, keep your cool and read that phrase you quoted and my OP again carefully! Your anger is making you adress the wrong people. I would say 0,7% is pretty rocking compared to what's happening in Spain, Italy, Greece or Portugal.

I'm basically of your opinion, and I think this could be as bad or worse than the great depression. You are smarter than me, because you know it will start exactly in 2015 (so 7th of May 2015 or what) and know exactly how bad it will be. I don't know when it will start or how bad exactly it will become.

I am not angry. I am trying to wake you up from your complacency.

What part of 200 year debt highs do you fail to grasp?

Can you read?

Do you seriously suggest things are as bad in Germany as they are in Italy, Spain or Greece?

This ego shit is too stupid, let's not continue this.

Actually, Germany may very well be an epicenter for the collapse of the Euro. Why? Because they are a massive creditor. During debt implosions, creditors take huge losses. Creditors tend to watch their economies contract much steeper then debtors. German manufacturing firms are loaded to the hilt with operational debt. Germany continues flooding the world with excess production of vehicles, equipment etc. All financed by debt. The German state itself is not in good shape because of simple demographics. Do you really think all those young Mohammed's in Germany will willfully pay the pensions of Mr and Mrs Hanz?

Germany has imploded it's own economy about 4 times in the last 100 years alone, including some of the worst hyperinflation ever recorded. Let's not forget the wealth loss they are responsible for via 2 world wars. Don't let their propaganda fool you.
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Jim Rickards' New Book "The Death of Money", Review
by
Dr.Zaius
on 20/04/2014, 06:05:44 UTC
$7000 Gold will never happen.

Long before that the banking system would have already imploded.

Jim Rickard's is a typical dooms day hack. These guys are all over the place pumping gold and their own books. Ironically they all seem to be reading the same tea leaves or something.
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Finance Part I: Understanding the Parasite
by
Dr.Zaius
on 20/04/2014, 04:39:39 UTC
You haven't brought up anything new, other then the typical summary of someone's Austrian economic youtube video. By the way Von Mises completely diverged away from the original father of Austrian economics Carl Menger.

Cryptocurrency's are nothing more then a digital rehashing of an already failed monetary system, the 100% Gold standard. Murray Rothbard's dream was to have his sack of gold swell in value from labor of others. The unanswered and unsolved economic issue in the west is usury. None of these "schools" even adress it, they all make up absurd theories to try and justify it. The worst thing to ever happen to economics was when it was divorced from moral philosophy and became a pseudo-science.

When historian's look back on the internet, they will find not only was it not a harbinger of innovation but worse, a total propagator of bad ideas and old errors.
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Topic
Board Speculation
Re: BTC 1.0 vs BTC 2.0: bullish perspective
by
Dr.Zaius
on 20/04/2014, 04:32:54 UTC
How can bitcoin 2.0 be developed when bitcoin 1.0 does not even exist? Bitcoin in it's current state is a glorified hack. Ethereum is something that would work with a fully developed, standardized bitcoin. Why are people jumping so ahead into the future already?

Yesterday I downloaded the new armory client and it took about an hour running the laptop at maximum load for it to compile whatever it was doing. The computer got so hot I thought it would begin melting. This is 5 years in.
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Topic
Board Speculation
Re: BTC will have no more "to the moon" rises. Face it, BTC is becoming BANKING
by
Dr.Zaius
on 20/04/2014, 04:25:22 UTC
Bitcoin 100k is impossible.

You can create bitcoin replica's ad infinitum. Pointing miners to build a network takes a second.

Look how stable the BTC/LTC exchange rate is relative to BTC/USD. You can inflate the total amount of cryptos via substitution. If the price of BTC is too high people go to alts. This isn't a theory its been happening since spring 2013. Litecoin becomes very fungible with BTC.

Bitcoin is now half a decade old. Stagnant development has kept it in a permanent beta stage to give off the aurora that it is the "new" thing. The development "talent" pool has also been a total disappointment. As with all open source projects, no real incentive's in place. The biggest development in the last 12 months has been changing the name to bitcoin core.

Bitcoin userbase is as small as ever. Couple thousand unique users daily at max. All these pumpers have told us about the adoption that's coming, but somehow never materializes. We then quickly hear the excuses China, Mtgox. etc. Look how fast coinmap.org has slowed down, and most of the business's on there are shelling VNC's.

Sorry guys. The bull market was 09-13. The easy money was already made. Sure bitcoin can rise 2 3 4x from here, but another 100 bagger? Not a chance.

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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Bitcoin adoption slowing; Coinbase + Bitpay is enough to make Bitcoin a fiat
by
Dr.Zaius
on 20/04/2014, 03:18:22 UTC
Dear @AnonyMint, we could hardly be further apart in our political views, especially the value and role of government.  Therefore I would rather not discuss that topic, but would like to comment on a few peripheral points:

* It is debatable whether Europe went into 600 years of darkness after the fall of Rome.  Our view of History is biased towards recorded History, and the end of the Empire meant the end of the largest and most punctillious record keeping organization of that Millenium.  The centralized administration collapsed, and with it the supply network that sustained the large population in Rome; but it seems hard to evaluate whether the life of the Europeans as a whole regressed in the following centuries, or continued to improve.  Many cities throughout Europe surely kept growing and became more "civilized".   Perhaps the "total degree of civilization" kept increasing, but in a quantitative rather than qualitative sense --- that is, a lot of people improved, while a few regressed.   To tell whether this happened or not, one would need statistics that seem largely unavailable.

Moreover, if one looks a bit beyond Europe, one can say that the center of civilization simply moved elsewhere, to the Caliphate -- that built an Empire about as large as the Roman one, and was just as civilized and progressive as the Romans had been.  

* You are right that knowledge may be 1000x more valuable than matter, in terms of the results it may produce; but value does not equate to price (that is, how much one can obtain in exchange for it).  Just consider that air is infinitely more valuable than caviar, for example.

In a free market, the price of a product eventually settles to the cost of production plus a few percent.  But the cost of duplicating knowledge is almost nil now.  Threfore, if/when knowledge will be traded in a few market, it will cost almost nil.  We are seeing it happen now: newspaper paywalls, copyright, and DRM are only a nuisance, since people can get most of the news and entertainment they want from free sources.  

Copyright and patent royalties can be collected only when and where the government is corrupted by the "intellectual property owners" to forcefully prevent the development of a free market of information.   If that free market existed, "knowledge makers" would be paid only for producing new knowledge, and only while they are producing it; not for selling or renting knowledge that they "own" -- just as a mason only gets paid while he works, not for rent in perpetuity of the houses that he built.

* I am very skeptical of anonimity as a "weapon of freedom".  On one hand, one cannot build a functional society only with anonymous interactions.  What makes society work it is the network of person-to-person interactions, where the parties know and trust each other.  In anonymous interactions, outside the reach of government, there is no incentive to honor deals or build a reputation.

Bitcoiners claim that their contraption removes the need for mutual trust or a trusted intermediary in commercial transactions, but that is not true.  A commercial transaction involves two transfers, money in one direction and goods or services in the other direction.  Bitcoin only handles the former; but one still needs trust (or a trusted intermediary with teeth), in order to ensure that the customer will pay for the goods that have been sent, or that the merchan will ship the goods that have been paid.  I don't see how to get that with anonymous transactions and without a government to enforce honest dealing.

Anonimity would be important in times when democracy has failed and citizens need to conspire underground in order to remove an illegitimate, undemocratic  government.  Unfortunately, such governments can and will easily prevent anonimity.  Even technically sophisticated citizens will have little chance against a determined ditactorial government.  

Well said. Bitcoiner's using the term "trust-less" is ridiculous. This has done nothing but lead people into a den of scams and thieves. Trust requires prudence which is a moral virture. A successful society therefore must be a moral society. Economic exchange cannot occur on large scale without trust. The bitcoin ecosystem is the exact evidence of this, a "trustless" system where 1 in 2 transactions are scams of some sort.

Anonymint is pretty correct about Rome collapse. Capital flight took place on a mass scale, and gold was hoarded to the point where we are still digging up old coins. However monks ended up salvaging most of civilization and building fortress monastery's which are still evident in Europe. Eventually they were able to civilize the barbarians which had ravaged most of Italy. This took hundreds of years, I don't think 600 is accurate. It was also the first time in history where human labor was actually valued. Roman's were not progressive's, their economy was based on slavery and money lending. It wasn't until the Christian monks instilled a value for human labor to the barbarians that Western Europe began slowly recovering. Benedictine monks are the fathers of European identity, and exhibited one of the most successful applications of decentralized local rule systems ever. Despite the false promises of the internet, the modern world is more centralized then at any point in human history, even more-so then the Romans at peak empire.
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Board Economics
Re: Bitcoin adoption slowing; Coinbase + Bitpay is enough to make Bitcoin a fiat
by
Dr.Zaius
on 20/04/2014, 03:14:08 UTC
If you want anonymity use paper cash, gold etc, and stay off the internet.

The NSA revelations have merely proven what many have warned for ages. The internet is far from anonymous nor private.

Anonymint, I don't get what you are trying to convey here. You want a 100% anonymous internet based crypto coin that is fundamentally based on government approved and pioneered cryptography? And you want the world using it before your projected 2015-2016 debt apocalypse. Sorry to tell you, but that scenario involves rolling power blackouts(see Greece), kind of nips your idea in the bud. Crypto currencies require sophisticated infrastructure RUNNING in order to work.
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Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Warren Buffett seems to be perfectly aware of what technology brings
by
Dr.Zaius
on 20/04/2014, 02:59:01 UTC
The Buffet Bubble.

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HLlzBwyqobk/T6gWQX6vUkI/AAAAAAAAA3g/EI5tt-t4vcA/s1600/brkgold.png

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/02/warrensbubble.jpg


The problem with Warren Buffet's advice is it completely ignores the harsh realities of taxes and inflation. Once taxes and inflation are factored into the Sp500, returns plunge to roughly 1.5% annually. The government will end up with the majority of your stock gains, as it taxes both corporate income and dividend. "Productive" investments require a friendly environment to properly deliver returns.

One of the benefits of crypto, it allows building systems where those 2 dead weights do not apply.

A gold bar sitting in your basement doing nothing still buys the same value of US stocks as it did almost 70 years ago. This also makes sense, as I don't think anyone believes the US industrial base is 1000x bigger. Where have all the gains gone? Into government coffers via taxation and inflation.

http://pricedingold.com/charts/SP500-1880.pdf

There's a time and place for every asset class. If the monetary system was sound to begin with, bitcoin would probably never have come into existence.
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Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Ron Paul says Bitcoin is not "True Money".
by
Dr.Zaius
on 20/04/2014, 01:28:31 UTC
Ron Paul is right. Bitcoin presently is not money.

Why?

Money has to be very marketable. What does this mean? It means if you exchange large amounts of money for goods,services it's value does not plunge. The marginal utility of whatever is money has to be high. Bitcoin does not pass this test. When even a small amount of bitcoins enter the market the bid/ask spread begins to widen insanely.

Money needs to extinguish debts. What does this mean? Settlement. Simply put almost nobody is settling anything in bitcoin. People accept BTC only because they can be instantly exchanged into dollars. Bitcoin is a conduit to access fiat liquidity pools, not to settle anything. Couple nerds maybe settling their tiny debts here and there in BTC.

Money needs to be able to measure value. What cost X BTC now may cost 1/3 BTC even tomorrow. Economic calculation is next to impossible in bitcoin. The value swings are too wide to even know what it will be worth in an hour. Bitcoin's value has fluctuated from +20 -60% since Jan 1st. This is an annual inflation rate of something like 150%.

Bitcoin does not pass any of those three tests to be even remotely considered money. It is the equivalent of tokens that access fiat bid's at this point in time.

Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Bitcoin to $0.50
by
Dr.Zaius
on 20/04/2014, 00:35:10 UTC
What's the big deal? Miners create 200,000 BTC every 55 days.
Your point being? What does that statement have to do with the topic?

Considering the fact that miners conjure up bitstamps entire bidbook every 5 days and this hasn't crashed the price. The 200k gox coins are irrelevant.

Second off, nobody will market dump 200k on Bitstamp. Why? Because bitstamp will never pay you out. Owners are already in flashy cars, while hitting withdrawals with AML/KYC excuses.

Third off, this assumes no side fiat enters to provide bids. 200k coins is like what 48hrs of volume on some days? That is nothing.

Fourth, this assumes Mt.Gox even had 200k BTC. Mt.Gox is posting theoretical balances from when bitcoin was worth a few penny's. Seriously the realistic victim losses are closer to $10-15million USD, nowhere near $100-500mil. Mt.Gox order books had what, 40k btc on them back in Spring 2013? By the end of the year it was closer to 20k btc. Are you really going to believe 180k BTC were idling around an exchange that has had warning signs for 8months prior?


 Bitcoin has also never had more then 50mil on all exchanges combined in available fiat bids, and that is being generous. Bitstamp is lucky to see over $10mil of active bids.

Mt.Gox is old news.
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Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Bitcoin to $0.50
by
Dr.Zaius
on 20/04/2014, 00:28:49 UTC
What's the big deal? Miners create 200,000 BTC every 55 days.
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: What gives a fiat currency its initial value?
by
Dr.Zaius
on 19/04/2014, 23:45:09 UTC
the dollar started as a receipt for gold thus its value was the same as the value of gold you could get for it.
over time to finance public works and war the government started printing more dollars and eventually had to give less and less gold per dollar in existence (they couldn't print gold to back up the paper).
eventually in 1971 the government had so little gold and so much paper in circulation that it had to stop redeeming paper for gold altogether.
since then more and more paper was printed the the purchasing power is declining ever since.

No it didn't. The dollar was merely a weight of silver. Later on they fixed a specific silver to gold ratio, which led to redefining the dollar in terms of gold. The government has always fucked around with what money was, namely in the interests of the usury(capitalist) class centered in New York. Gold was replaced with the government bond as a "risk free asset". Essentially the Fed and the Treasury began engaging in check kiting in the 1920's. By the 70's this scheme was fully accepted.

"Fiat" is not really fiat. It is in places like Zimbabwe, however in the US it is credit money. Every single credit dollar in existence is backed by collateral. The federal reserve asset column consists of mainly US government bonds. What are US government bonds? These are future claims on the sweat equity of 310 million Americans. So every dollar the fed lends into existence is collateralized by the future productivity of American's which will be extracted via taxation. Now ask yourself, does future productivity have "intrinsic value"? Of course it does.

Do you understand this concept? It is not  by decree. It is not by coercion. It is by DEBT. The collateral "backing" the credit(dollars) gives them value. If the collateral is of poor or dubious quality the value of the dollars decreases(inflation). Total debt + interest also exceeds available dollar credits in existence, this places an almost perpetual BID for them. Someone in the economy is constantly in need of dollars to repay old debts.

Commercial banks essentially produce dollar derivatives. They lend out claims to federal reserve dollars, every-time you get a loan for XYZ. What are those claims backed by? The collateral you post(house, car) and your sweat equity(income). When these institutions engage in counterfeiting of credit you get inflation.

For this system to work it requires perpetual economic growth, as new wealth must act as collateral for new loans. Hence the obsession with constant GDP expansion. Obviously, this is impossible. The economy never grows as fast as the rate of interest. This places a certain class of people(usury) to essentially rent seek. When the economy can no longer produce new wealth fast enough they simply begin recollateralizing existing assets. Ie homes, stocks, education, sweat equity gets revalued(hence inflation occurs). Anything that can be borrowed against must rise in price in perpetuity to expand the total debt pool. When this system begins breaking down 2008 happens.

Hyperdeflation will occur before hyperinflation.

The end game is when you cannot trade a US government bond for gold. Meaning there is no exchange rate between Gold and US treasuries. No bid. That is when the credit dollar system implodes. We are still far away from this scenario, and it does not have to happen. Also since the majority of global fiat currencies are pyramided off of the dollar, the USD will be the LAST to fail. So betting on the US dollar to collapse, you won't survive the journey.

Bitcoin will also be next to worthless under this scenario. Why? Because bitcoin requires a sophisticated civilized society to function. It requires electricity, high bandwith, communication, smart phone networks. Under a fiat collapse trade essentially grinds to a halt, multilateral trade turns into bilateral trade ie BARTER. The last thing people will be concerned about will be some virtual units on the internet that have no value outside of their exchange. All of you hoping on a fiat collapse, are essentially cheering on your own misery.

 
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Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Forex traders: why did you come to cryptos?
by
Dr.Zaius
on 19/04/2014, 23:23:08 UTC
Cryptos are 10 times easier to manipulate from their piss poor liquidity. Forex is dominated by large hedge funds, central banks etc. Crypto traders tend to be novice basement dwellers who panic at the first sight of any whale.
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Topic
Board Politics & Society
Re: Armed Feds Prepare For Showdown With Nevada Cattle Rancher
by
Dr.Zaius
on 19/04/2014, 23:00:33 UTC
Furthermore, the Constitution never provided for the Federal government to own and manage large tracts of land. The Constitution limits the Federal power and they were to acquire facilities only as necessary to serve their function. Precisely because our forefathers were quite aware of what happens when the fox controls the hen house.

I am slightly confused. Which side is the Fox News currently? Check this:

http://nation.foxnews.com/2014/04/18/exclusive-rancher-cliven-bundy-hits-back-after-reid-calls-family-domestic-terrorists

Quote
"Well, I guess he's right," Bundy said, "I don't know what else we'd be. We're definitely citizens riled up. I don't know whether you could call us terrorists. There are the most loving people here I've ever met in my life."

The plan as always is to pretend to generate genuine inquiry to defuse the skepticism of a media conspiracy (or blackout), but then bury the original clarity under heaping shit-loads of endless talking heads, so the public tunes out to the original focus.

Overload them with stimulus and the brains of the masses are fried.

The forefathers you speak of also constituted the wealthiest and largest landowners of the colonies at the time of the revolution. The civil war also answered the question of both state and individual sovereignty. Put it simply, it ended both(if they ever really existed in the first place). The federal government became defacto sovereign. These United States became The United States. The 14th amendment also makes it clear that US citizens are SUBJECT to US government jurisdiction(which the civil war answered). Pre revolution colonies under the King had more autonomy then post. 20 years after the revolution, people were already being nostalgic about the good old days. After the Civil War, the US became a nation state and as of 1941 an empire.

Sorry to tell you but the US constitution was never a holy document with any real meaning. The federal government right from inception, has time and time again proven it can do whatever it wishes. When you build a foundation based on revolution, it will always be on unstable(lack of) principles. What they wrote on paper and what they did in reality are two different things. This goes back to the "founders" all breaking oaths they took. Why would men who broke their own word, be able to enshrine integrity into anything they created? Ever since the federal government has persistently followed no principles, constantly changing its tone based on what it sees fit at a given time. Every constitutional amendment has been redefined or reinterpreted time and time again. New ones were added to justify innovations(income tax). The constitution never had any real meaning. People pray to it like a holy relic. Talk about misguided and misinformed(state sanctioned education).

Bundy is fighting a losing battle that will cost him his wealth, well being and quite possibly even his life. What's the point? When he dies he will be forgotten about quickly.

You also keep quoting a convicted fraudster who read's tea leaves for economic projections as scripture. Martin Armstrong is a joke.
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Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Should core bitcoin developers freeze stolen Mt.Gox bitcoins?
by
Dr.Zaius
on 19/04/2014, 21:27:03 UTC
If a coin freezing mechanism exists, or if a certain group holds some type of black listing rights, the value of a bitcoin will go to zero.

Bitcoin has no value outside of exchange. If you modify its fungibility it becomes worthless.
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Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: "Merchant acceptance is NEGATIVE for bitcoin"
by
Dr.Zaius
on 19/04/2014, 06:54:50 UTC
It seems that Peter pointed a fact that nobody noticed. But as the market is manipulated, who knows.

Anyone that can think understands the obvious.

Merchant "adoption" means bitpay and coinbase. These are just exchange services, basically providing more outs for someone to sell BTC at.

Now ask yourself who has BTC and is willing to sell? Miners, those with substantial capital gains, and those few that earn BTC incomes.

Merchant adoption does nothing for the value of a BTC.

As long as BTC is exchangeable for fiat, every merchant has "adopted" it. Do merchants have to "adopt" gold for its price to rise? No.


Example.
If i sell my BTC for USD and spend at BestBuy that is the same thing as BTC-->Bitpay--->USD-->BestBuy.

Now think about that.

The only thing that matters for the BTC value to rise is an expanding pool of fiat BID.
Post
Topic
Board Armory
Topic OP
Armory client did not broadcast transaction
by
Dr.Zaius
on 19/04/2014, 05:52:11 UTC
I made a transaction with armory 0.87, on the client it shows it was sent but there is nothing at all on the blockchain. The blockchain still shows the sending adress has having it's balance. Armory however shows the balance deducted from the wallet, along with a TXID which does not show up on blockchain. This is the first time this has happened to me, do I have to just wait?